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Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Clinical machine learning applications are often plagued with confounders that are clinically irrelevant, but can still artificially boost the predictive performance of the algorithms. Confounding is especially problematic in mobile health…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-29 Elias Chaibub Neto

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Ziyang Liu , Niwen Zhou , Peng Wu , Xu Guo

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Clinical machine learning applications are often plagued with confounders that can impact the generalizability and predictive performance of the learners. Confounding is especially problematic in remote digital health studies where the…

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

We present new results for nonparametric identification of causal effects using noisy proxies for unobserved confounders. Our approach builds on the results of \citet{Hu2008} who tackle the problem of general measurement error. We call this…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-05 Ben Deaner

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

The treatment effects of medications play a key role in guiding medical prescriptions. They are usually assessed with randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which are expensive. Recently, large-scale electronic health records (EHRs) have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-20 Linying Zhang , Yixin Wang , Anna Ostropolets , Jami J. Mulgrave , David M. Blei , George Hripcsak

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

The heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) lies at the heart of precision medicine. Randomized controlled trials are gold-standard for treatment effect estimation but are typically underpowered for heterogeneous effects. In contrast, large…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Shu Yang , Siyi Liu , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Yuchen Ma , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper introduces an overidentification test of two alternative assumptions to identify the average treatment effect on the treated in a two-period panel data setting: unconfoundedness and common trends. Under the unconfoundedness…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-25 Martin Huber , Eva-Maria Oeß

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

Wang and Tchetgen Tchetgen (2017) studied identification and estimation of the average treatment effect when some confounders are unmeasured. Under their identification condition, they showed that the semiparametric efficient influence…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-07-17 Chunrong Ai , Lukang Huang , Zheng Zhang

An important problem in causal inference is to break down the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into different causal pathways and to quantify the causal effect in each pathway. For instance, in causal fairness, the total effect of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-10 Lu Cheng , Ruocheng Guo , Huan Liu

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

Noncompliance and missing data often occur in randomized trials, which complicate the inference of causal effects. When both noncompliance and missing data are present, previous papers proposed moment and maximum likelihood estimators for…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-04 Hua Chen , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng , Xiao-Hua Zhou
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