Related papers: Introducing the ICBe Dataset: Very High Recall and…
The International Crises Behavior Events (ICBe) ontology provides high coverage over the thoughts, communications, and actions that constitute international relations. A major disadvantage of that level of detail is that it requires large…
When a dangerous international crisis begins, leaders need to know whether their next move is going to resolve the dispute or amplify it out of control. Theories of conflict have mainly served to deepen the confusion, revealing fighting,…
As the knowledge landscape evolves and large language models (LLMs) become increasingly widespread, there is a growing need to keep these models updated with current events. While existing benchmarks assess general factual recall, few…
Classification of crisis events, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks and pandemics, is a crucial task to create early signals and inform relevant parties for spontaneous actions to reduce overall damage. Despite crisis such as…
Recognizing and learning from similar crisis situations is crucial for the development of effective response strategies. This study addresses the challenge of identifying similarities within a wide range of crisis-related information. To…
Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this…
Integrative Complexity (IC) is a psychometric that measures the ability of a person to recognize multiple perspectives and connect them, thus identifying paths for conflict resolution. IC has been linked to a wide variety of political,…
Comparative analysis of event sequence data is essential in many application domains, such as website design and medical care. However, analysts often face two challenges: they may not always know which sets of event sequences in the data…
In modern advanced emergency management systems many solutions for decision support have been provided as attempts to support humans to take important decisions for the critical situations recovery. The critical situation detection is a…
Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear…
During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in…
Cognitive science and symbolic AI research suggest that event causality provides vital information for story understanding. However, machine learning systems for story understanding rarely employ event causality, partially due to the lack…
Our lives are ruled by events of varying importance ranging from simple everyday occurrences to incidents of societal dimension. And a lot of effort is taken to exchange information and discuss about such events: generally speaking,…
Comprehending the information environment (IE) during crisis events is challenging due to the rapid change and abstract nature of the domain. Many approaches focus on snapshots via classification methods or network approaches to describe…
Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that…
Our world is shaped by events of various complexity. This includes both small-scale local events like local farmer markets and large complex events like political and military conflicts. The latter are typically not observed directly but…
Intelligent systems are increasingly integral to our daily lives, yet rare safety-critical events present significant latent threats to their practical deployment. Addressing this challenge hinges on accurately predicting the probability of…
Conflicts, like many social processes, are related events that span multiple scales in time, from the instantaneous to multi-year developments, and in space, from one neighborhood to continents. Yet, there is little systematic work on…
Despite the significant efforts made by the research community in recent years, automatically acquiring valuable information about high impact-events from social media remains challenging. We present EviDense, a graph-based approach for…
Country instability is a global issue, with unpredictably high levels of instability thwarting socio-economic growth and possibly causing a slew of negative consequences. As a result, uncertainty prediction models for a country are becoming…