Related papers: Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering

Large crossed data sets, described by generalized linear mixed models, have become increasingly common and provide challenges for statistical analysis. At very large sizes it becomes desirable to have the computational costs of estimation,…

We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce posteriors, an…

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

We describe a numerical scheme for evaluating the posterior moments of Bayesian linear regression models with partial pooling of the coefficients. The principal analytical tool of the evaluation is a change of basis from coefficient space…

The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and…

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an…

Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used as statistical models in many disciplines. However, intractable likelihood functions for SDEs make inference challenging, and we need to resort to simulation-based techniques to estimate and…

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), remain the most regularly-used approach for implementing Bayesian inference. However, the computational cost of these approaches usually scales worse than linearly with the…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We introduce an approach based on mirror descent and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to perform joint parameter inference and posterior estimation in latent variable models. This approach is based on minimisation of a functional over the…

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Monte Carlo sampling techniques have broad applications in machine learning, Bayesian posterior inference, and parameter estimation. Often the target distribution takes the form of a product distribution over a dataset with a large number…

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…