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The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Learning a universal manipulation policy encompassing doors with diverse categories, geometries and mechanisms, is crucial for future embodied agents to effectively work in complex and broad real-world scenarios. Due to the limited datasets…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Yu Li , Xiaojie Zhang , Ruihai Wu , Zilong Zhang , Yiran Geng , Hao Dong , Zhaofeng He

We study the problem of monitoring machine learning models under gradual distribution shifts, where circumstances change slowly over time, often leading to unnoticed yet significant declines in accuracy. To address this, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Alexander Koebler , Thomas Decker , Ingo Thon , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Continual learning aims to learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones. This is especially challenging when one cannot access data from previous tasks and when the model has a fixed capacity. Current regularization-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-21 Sayna Ebrahimi , Mohamed Elhoseiny , Trevor Darrell , Marcus Rohrbach

An open problem in Machine Learning is how to avoid models to exploit spurious correlations in the data; a famous example is the background-label shortcut in the Waterbirds dataset. A common remedy is to train a model across multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-15 Madi Matymov , Ba-Hien Tran , Maurizio Filippone

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) operate in dynamic environments, leading to different types of uncertainty. This work provides a comprehensive review of uncertainty representations and categorizes them based on the dimensions used to represent…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-01 Johannes Mäkelburg , Diego Perez-Palacin , Raffaela Mirandola , Maribel Acosta

Modeling spatial-temporal interactions among neighboring agents is at the heart of multi-agent problems such as motion forecasting and crowd navigation. Despite notable progress, it remains unclear to which extent modern representations can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Ahmad Rahimi , Po-Chien Luan , Yuejiang Liu , Frano Rajič , Alexandre Alahi

Autonomous vehicles performing navigation tasks in complex environments face significant challenges due to uncertainty in state estimation. In many scenarios, such as stealth operations or resource-constrained settings, accessing…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Gokul Puthumanaillam , Paulo Padrao , Jose Fuentes , Leonardo Bobadilla , Melkior Ornik

Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Marnix Suilen , Ufuk Topcu

We introduce an unsupervised formulation to estimate heteroscedastic uncertainty in retrieval systems. We propose an extension to triplet loss that models data uncertainty for each input. Besides improving performance, our formulation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-02-08 Ahmed Taha , Yi-Ting Chen , Teruhisa Misu , Abhinav Shrivastava , Larry Davis

Identifying uncertainty and taking mitigating actions is crucial for safe and trustworthy reinforcement learning agents, especially when deployed in high-risk environments. In this paper, risk sensitivity is promoted in a model-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Stefan Radic Webster , Peter Flach

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

To build robust, fair, and safe AI systems, we would like our classifiers to say ``I don't know'' when facing test examples that are difficult or fall outside of the training classes.The ubiquitous strategy to predict under uncertainty is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-22 Kamalika Chaudhuri , David Lopez-Paz

We consider a simulation-based Ranking and Selection (R&S) problem with input uncertainty, where unknown input distributions can be estimated using input data arriving in batches of varying sizes over time. Each time a batch arrives,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Di Wu , Yuhao Wang , Enlu Zhou

Simulation offers a scalable and efficient alternative to real-world data collection for learning visuomotor robotic policies. However, the simulation-to-reality, or Sim2Real distribution shift -- introduced by employing simulation-trained…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Yash Yardi , Samuel Biruduganti , Lars Ankile

Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data-driven subgrid-scale parameterization in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex nonlinear relationships from data, there are several challenges in…

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

Recent advances in multi-agent reinforcement learning have been largely limited in training one model from scratch for every new task. The limitation is due to the restricted model architecture related to fixed input and output dimensions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Siyi Hu , Fengda Zhu , Xiaojun Chang , Xiaodan Liang

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone
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