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In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Chengchun Shi , Yunzhe Zhou , Lexin Li

Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many empirical sciences. Traditional score-based casual discovery methods rely on various local heuristics to search for a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Shengyu Zhu , Ignavier Ng , Zhitang Chen

Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data is a challenging task both in theory and in practice, because the number of possible DAGs scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. In this paper, we study the problem of learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Hasan Manzour , Simge Küçükyavuz , Ali Shojaie

We study the problem of causal structure learning over a set of random variables when the experimenter is allowed to perform at most $M$ experiments in a non-adaptive manner. We consider the optimal learning strategy in terms of minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-01 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , Lucas Vogels , S. Ilker Birbil

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-21 Kazuharu Harada , Hironori Fujisawa

We present an objective Bayes method for covariance selection in Gaussian multivariate regression models whose error term has a covariance structure which is Markov with respect to a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The scope is…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-09 G. Consonni , L. La Rocca

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Michael Braun , Paul Damien

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Xinshi Chen , Haoran Sun , Caleb Ellington , Eric Xing , Le Song

We introduce a novel class of labeled directed acyclic graph (LDAG) models for finite sets of discrete variables. LDAGs generalize earlier proposals for allowing local structures in the conditional probability distribution of a node, such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-12 Johan Pensar , Henrik Nyman , Timo Koski , Jukka Corander

Learning causal structures from observational data is a fundamental problem facing important computational challenges when the number of variables is large. In the context of linear structural equation models (SEMs), this paper focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Shuyu Dong , Kento Uemura , Akito Fujii , Shuang Chang , Yusuke Koyanagi , Koji Maruhashi , Michèle Sebag

Causal Bayesian Networks provide an important tool for reasoning under uncertainty with potential application to many complex causal systems. Structure learning algorithms that can tell us something about the causal structure of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Neville K Kitson , Anthony C Constantinou

A structural equation model (SEM) is an effective framework to reason over causal relationships represented via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Recent advances have enabled effective maximum-likelihood point estimation of DAGs from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Chris Cundy , Aditya Grover , Stefano Ermon

We study a distributed learning problem in which learning agents are embedded in a directed acyclic graph (DAG). There is a fixed and arbitrary distribution over feature/label pairs, and each agent or vertex in the graph is able to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Michael Kearns , Aaron Roth , Emily Ryu

We develop a novel convolutional architecture tailored for learning from data defined over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs can be used to model causal relationships among variables, but their nilpotent adjacency matrices pose unique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Samuel Rey , Hamed Ajorlou , Gonzalo Mateos

In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical extension of the stochastic blockmodel to identify multilevel community structures in networks. We also present a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and a variational Bayes algorithm to fit the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-07 Pedro Regueiro , Abel Rodríguez , Juan Sosa

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-23 Gareth W. Peters , Balakrishnan Kannan , Ben Lasscock , Chris Mellen

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian Wills , Sarah J. Johnson

A novel approach of accurately reconstructing storage ring's linear optics from turn-by-turn (TbT) data containing measurement error is introduced. This approach adopts a Bayesian inference based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC)…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2019-07-01 Yue Hao , Yongjun Li , Michael Balcewicz , Leo Neufcourt , Weixing Cheng