Related papers: Probabilistic learning inference of boundary value…

Stochastic variational Bayes algorithms have become very popular in the machine learning literature, particularly in the context of nonparametric Bayesian inference. These algorithms replace the true but intractable posterior distribution…

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow for constructing surrogate models of a physical model polluted by additive noise to efficiently quantify forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Existing surrogate modeling…

The analysis of observed time series from nonlinear systems is usually done by making a time-delay reconstruction to unfold the dynamics on a multi-dimensional state space. An important aspect of the analysis is the choice of the correct…

We present a technique for constructing random fields from a set of training samples. The learning paradigm builds increasingly complex fields by allowing potential functions, or features, that are supported by increasingly large subgraphs.…

In the era of Big Data, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which are currently essential for Bayesian estimation, face significant computational challenges owing to their sequential nature. To achieve a faster and more effective…

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Empirical risk minimization, a cornerstone in machine learning, is often hindered by the Optimizer's Curse stemming from discrepancies between the empirical and true data-generating distributions.To address this challenge, the robust…

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse…

A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…

Effective uncertainty quantification is important for training modern predictive models with limited data, enhancing both accuracy and robustness. While Bayesian methods are effective for this purpose, they can be challenging to scale. When…

Group sequential designs enable interim analyses and potential early stopping for efficacy or futility. While these adaptations improve trial efficiency and ethical considerations, they also introduce bias into the adapted analyses. We…

To characterize the Kullback-Leibler divergence and Fisher information in general parametrized hidden Markov models, in this paper, we first show that the log likelihood and its derivatives can be represented as an additive functional of a…

Learning to sample from intractable distributions over discrete sets without relying on corresponding training data is a central problem in a wide range of fields, including Combinatorial Optimization. Currently, popular deep learning-based…

In order to anticipate rare and impactful events, we propose to quantify the worst-case risk under distributional ambiguity using a recent development in kernel methods -- the kernel mean embedding. Specifically, we formulate the…

Optimum designs for parameter estimation in generalized regression models are standardly based on the Fisher information matrix (cf. Atkinson et al (2014) for a recent exposition). The corresponding optimality criteria are related to the…

The variational framework for learning inducing variables (Titsias, 2009a) has had a large impact on the Gaussian process literature. The framework may be interpreted as minimizing a rigorously defined Kullback-Leibler divergence between…

When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…

This paper introduces two new robust methods for estimation of parameters in a given parametric family. The first method is that of `minimum weighted L2', effectively minimising an estimate of the integrated (and possibly weighted) squared…

Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…