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Ensembles improve prediction performance and allow uncertainty quantification by aggregating predictions from multiple models. In deep ensembling, the individual models are usually black box neural networks, or recently, partially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-26 Lucas Kook , Andrea Götschi , Philipp FM Baumann , Torsten Hothorn , Beate Sick

Data-trained predictive models see widespread use, but for the most part they are used as black boxes which output a prediction or score. It is therefore hard to acquire a deeper understanding of model behavior, and in particular how…

Complex black-box predictive models may have high performance, but lack of interpretability causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, achieving satisfactory accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Alicja Gosiewska , Przemyslaw Biecek

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-07 Maximilian Blesch , Philipp Eisenhauer

Classical supervised learning produces unreliable models when training and target distributions differ, with most existing solutions requiring samples from the target domain. We propose a proactive approach which learns a relationship in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-01 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-10 Austin Pollok

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Christian Tomani , Florian Buettner

Despite their impressive performance, deep visual models are susceptible to transferable black-box adversarial attacks. Principally, these attacks craft perturbations in a target model-agnostic manner. However, surprisingly, we find that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Mohammad A. A. K. Jalwana , Naveed Akhtar , Ajmal Mian , Nazanin Rahnavard , Mubarak Shah

The applicability domain refers to the range of data for which the prediction of the predictive model is expected to be reliable and accurate and using a model outside its applicability domain can lead to incorrect results. The ability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Shakir Khurshid , Bharath Kumar Loganathan , Matthieu Duvinage

In classification, it is usual to observe that models trained on a given set of classes can generalize to previously unseen ones, suggesting the ability to learn beyond the initial task. This ability is often leveraged in the context of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Raphael Baena , Lucas Drumetz , Vincent Gripon

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-18 Collin Burns , Jesse Thomason , Wesley Tansey

This study examines the generalization ability of algorithm performance prediction models across various benchmark suites. Comparing the statistical similarity between the problem collections with the accuracy of performance prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Ana Nikolikj , Ana Kostovska , Gjorgjina Cenikj , Carola Doerr , Tome Eftimov

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

In machine learning, if the training data is an unbiased sample of an underlying distribution, then the learned classification function will make accurate predictions for new samples. However, if the training data is not an unbiased sample,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-15 Wouter M. Kouw , Marco Loog

Many modern learning tasks require models that can take inputs of varying sizes. Consequently, dimension-independent architectures have been proposed for domains where the inputs are graphs, sets, and point clouds. Recent work on graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Eitan Levin , Yuxin Ma , Mateo Díaz , Soledad Villar

Machine learning algorithms have achieved remarkable success across various disciplines, use cases and applications, under the prevailing assumption that training and test samples are drawn from the same distribution. Consequently, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Zehao Xiao , Cees G. M. Snoek

The increasing reliance on ML models in high-stakes tasks has raised a major concern on fairness violations. Although there has been a surge of work that improves algorithmic fairness, most of them are under the assumption of an identical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Bang An , Zora Che , Mucong Ding , Furong Huang

Symbolic regression algorithms search a space of mathematical expressions for formulas that explain given data. Transformer-based models have emerged as a promising, scalable approach shifting the expensive combinatorial search to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Henrik Voigt , Paul Kahlmeyer , Kai Lawonn , Michael Habeck , Joachim Giesen

The problem of domain generalization is to learn, given data from different source distributions, a model that can be expected to generalize well on new target distributions which are only seen through unlabeled samples. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Markus Holzleitner , Sergei V. Pereverzyev , Werner Zellinger

Transfer learning, also referred as knowledge transfer, aims at reusing knowledge from a source dataset to a similar target one. While many empirical studies illustrate the benefits of transfer learning, few theoretical results are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-19 David Obst , Badih Ghattas , Jairo Cugliari , Georges Oppenheim , Sandra Claudel , Yannig Goude