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Gaussian mixture models form a flexible and expressive parametric family of distributions that has found applications in a wide variety of applications. Unfortunately, fitting these models to data is a notoriously hard problem from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Yuling Yan , Kaizheng Wang , Philippe Rigollet

We derive an efficient stochastic algorithm for inverse problems that present an unknown linear forcing term and a set of nonlinear parameters to be recovered. It is assumed that the data is noisy and that the linear part of the problem is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Darko Volkov

Weakly stationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are the principal tool in the statistical approaches to the design and analysis of computer experiments (or Uncertainty Quantification). Such processes are fitted to computer model output using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Victoria Volodina , Daniel B. Williamson

This paper proposes a novel purely measurement-based method for estimating dynamic load parameters in near real-time when stochastic load fluctuations are present. By leveraging on the regression theorem for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-20 Georgia Pierrou , Xiaozhe Wang

This paper studies worst-case robust optimal tracking using noisy input-output data. We utilize behavioral system theory to represent system trajectories, while avoiding explicit system identification. We assume that the recent output data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Liang Xu , Mustafa Sahin Turan , Baiwei Guo , Giancarlo Ferrari-Trecate

The Power Law Process, also known as Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, has been used in various aspects, one of which is the software reliability assessment. Specifically, by using its intensity function to compute the rate of change of a…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-06 Freeh Alenezi , Chris. Tsokos

Semi-numerical models of reionization typically involve a large number of unknown parameters whose values are constrained by comparing with observations. Increasingly often, exploring this parameter space using semi-numerical simulations…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-05 T. Roy Choudhury , A. Paranjape , B. Maity

We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Andrew M. Stuart , Aretha L. Teckentrup

We introduce a data-based approach to estimating key quantities which arise in the study of nonlinear control systems and random nonlinear dynamical systems. Our approach hinges on the observation that much of the existing linear theory may…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-04-04 Jake Bouvrie , Boumediene Hamzi

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

Assuming an exponential power distribution is one way to deal with outliers in regression and clustering, which can increase the robustness of the analysis. Gaussian distribution is a special case of an exponential distribution. And an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Xiao Chen

This work is about a slow-fast data assimilation system under non-Gaussian noisy fluctuations. Firstly, we show the existence of a random invariant manifold for a stochastic dynamical system with non-Gaussian noise and two-time scales.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-12 Yanjie Zhang , Huijie Qiao , Jinqiao Duan

In dealing with high-dimensional data, factor models are often used for reducing dimensions and extracting relevant information. The spectrum of covariance matrices from power data exhibits two aspects: 1) bulk, which arises from random…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-22 Xin Shi , Robert Qiu

Electrical fault classification is vital for ensuring the reliability and safety of power systems. Accurate and efficient fault classification methods are essential for timely and effective maintenance. In this paper, we propose a novel…

We address the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of power grid inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. We investigate two approaches, an adjoint-based method and a stochastic spectral method. These…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-15 Noemi Petra , Cosmin G. Petra , Zheng Zhang , Emil M. Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

This paper is concerned with robust performance criteria for linear continuous time invariant stochastic systems driven by statistically uncertain random processes. The uncertainty is understood as the deviation of imprecisely known…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Igor G. Vladimirov

With the continued deployment of synchronized Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), high sample rate data are rapidly increasing the real time observability of power systems. Prior research has shown that the statistics of these data can provide…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-05-11 Samuel Chevalier , Paul D. H. Hines

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

We consider the problem of reconstructing the dynamic state matrix of transmission power grids from time-stamped PMU measurements in the regime of ambient fluctuations. Using a maximum likelihood based approach, we construct a family of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-31 Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Vuffray , Dmitry Shemetov , Deepjyoti Deka , Michael Chertkov

Gaussian processes constitute a very powerful and well-understood method for non-parametric regression and classification. In the classical framework, the training data consists of deterministic vector-valued inputs and the corresponding…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Maxim Dolgov , Uwe D. Hanebeck