Related papers: Mr. Bayes and the classics: a suggested interpreta…
Bruno de Finetti was one of the most convinced advocates of finitely additive probabilities. The present work describes the intellectual pro- cess that led him to support that stance and provides a detailed account both of the first paper…
Randomness is an unavoidable notion in discussing quantum physics, and this may trigger the curiosity to know more of its cultural history. This text is an invitation to explore the position on the matter of Thomas Aquinas, one of the most…
The intuitive reasoning of physicists in conditions of uncertainty is closer to the Bayesian approach than to the frequentist ideas taught at University and which are considered the reference framework for handling statistical problems. The…
Consider the following story: A teacher announces to her students a test for the following week, such that the test will be ``surprising''. The students use this as the basis for a ``logical derivation'' and reach a contradiction, which…
Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…
This article brings attention to some historical developments that gave rise to the Bayes factor for testing a point null hypothesis against a composite alternative. In line with current thinking, we find that the conceptual innovation - to…
In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…
It is often objected that the Everett interpretation of QM cannot make sense of quantum probabilities, in one or both of two ways: either it can't make sense of probability at all, or it can't explain why probability should be governed by…
We present a new approach to the electromagnetic inverse problem that explicitly addresses the ambiguity associated with its ill-posed character. Rather than calculating a single ``best'' solution according to some criterion, our approach…
This paper deals with a new Bayesian approach to the two-sample problem. More specifically, let $x=(x_1,\ldots,x_{n_1})$ and $y=(y_1,\ldots,y_{n_2})$ be two independent samples coming from unknown distributions $F$ and $G$, respectively.…
The classical conception of falsification presents scientific theories as entities that are decisively refuted when their predictions fail. This picture has long been challenged by both philosophical analysis and scientific practice, yet…
Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…
The aim of this article is twofold. First, we shall review and analyse the Neo-Kantian justification for the application of probabilistic concepts in physics that was defended by Hans Reichenbach early in his career, notably in his…
In October 2017 the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy's body for official statistics, has published the book of fairy tales Le streghe di Bayes (The witches of Bayes) written by ISTAT staff members with the commendable…
The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence,…
From 1837, when he returned to England aboard the $\textit{HMS Beagle}$, to 1860, just after publication of $\textit{The Origin of Species}$, Charles Darwin kept detailed notes of each book he read or wanted to read. His notes and…
We introduce a novel notion of probability within quantum history theories and give a Gleasonesque proof for these assignments. This involves introducing a tentative novel axiom of probability. We also discuss how we are to interpret these…
A considerable body of work in AI has been concerned with aggregating measures of confirmatory and disconfirmatory evidence for a common set of propositions. Claiming classical probability to be inadequate or inappropriate, several…
The two of us have shared a fascination with James Victor Uspensky's 1937 textbook $Introduction \, to \, Mathematical \, Probability$ ever since our graduate student days: it contains many interesting results not found in other books on…