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This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-21 Mingwen Liu , Junbang Huo , Yulin Wu , Jinge Wu

In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-10 Furkan Karadaş , Bahaeddin Eravcı , Ahmet Murat Özbayoğlu

Predicting trends in stock market prices has been an area of interest for researchers for many years due to its complex and dynamic nature. Intrinsic volatility in stock market across the globe makes the task of prediction challenging.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-03 Luckyson Khaidem , Snehanshu Saha , Sudeepa Roy Dey

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-03 Nico Herrig

The application of deep learning to time series forecasting is one of the major challenges in present machine learning. We propose a novel methodology that combines machine learning and image processing methods to define and predict market…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-19 Bairui Du , Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes , Paolo Barucca

In this study, we utilize the Kalman-Filter analysis to assess market efficiency in major stock markets. The Kalman-Filter operates in two stages, assuming that the data contains a consistent trendline representing the true market value…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-26 Beier Liu , Haiyun Zhu

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Jingyang Wu , Xinyi Zhang , Fangyixuan Huang , Haochen Zhou , Rohtiash Chandra

To predict the future movements of stock markets, numerous studies concentrate on daily data and employ various machine learning (ML) models as benchmarks that often vary and lack standardization across different research works. This paper…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-16 Han Gui

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-13 Lars Elend , Sebastian A. Tideman , Kerstin Lopatta , Oliver Kramer

In this work we use Recurrent Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptrons to predict NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stock prices from historical data. We experiment with different architectures and compare data normalization techniques. Then, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-30 Kerda Varaku

Machine and deep learning-based algorithms are the emerging approaches in addressing prediction problems in time series. These techniques have been shown to produce more accurate results than conventional regression-based modeling. It has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Sima Siami-Namini , Neda Tavakoli , Akbar Siami Namin

The intention of this research is to study and design an automated agriculture commodity price prediction system with novel machine learning techniques. Due to the increasing large amounts historical data of agricultural commodity prices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Zhiyuan Chen , Howe Seng Goh , Kai Ling Sin , Kelly Lim , Nicole Ka Hei Chung , Xin Yu Liew

Predicting financial markets and stock price movements requires analyzing a company's performance, historic price movements, industry-specific events alongside the influence of human factors such as social media and press coverage. We…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Ali Elahi , Fatemeh Taghvaei

The financial domain presents a complex environment for stock market prediction, characterized by volatile patterns and the influence of multifaceted data sources. Traditional models have leveraged either Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN)…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-08 Arya Chakraborty , Auhona Basu

Stock market plays an important role in the economic development. Due to the complex volatility of the stock market, the research and prediction on the change of the stock price, can avoid the risk for the investors. The traditional time…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-23 Zhuangwei Shi , Yang Hu , Guangliang Mo , Jian Wu

Stock price forecasting has remained an extremely challenging problem for many decades due to the high volatility of the stock market. Recent efforts have been devoted to modeling complex stock correlations toward joint stock price…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Tong Li , Zhaoyang Liu , Yanyan Shen , Xue Wang , Haokun Chen , Sen Huang

Machine learning has been used in all kinds of fields. In this article, we introduce how machine learning can be applied into time series problem. Especially, we use the airline ticket prediction problem as our specific problem. Airline…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-06 Jun Lu

We explored the potential applications of various Quantum Algorithms for stock price prediction by conducting a series of experimental simulations using both Classical as well as Quantum Hardware. Firstly, we extracted various stock price…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-29 Naman S , Gaurang B , Neel S , Aswath Babu H

A linear multi-factor model is one of the most important tools in equity portfolio management. The linear multi-factor models are widely used because they can be easily interpreted. However, financial markets are not linear and their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-01 Kei Nakagawa , Tomoki Ito , Masaya Abe , Kiyoshi Izumi

Traditionally, traders and quantitative analysts address alpha decay by manually crafting formulaic alphas, mathematical expressions that identify patterns or signals in financial data, through domain expertise and trial-and-error. This…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Qizhao Chen , Hiroaki Kawashima