Related papers: Mathematical models of confirmation bias
Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical…
We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to…
In this study, I present a theoretical social learning model to investigate how confirmation bias affects opinions when agents exchange information over a social network. Hence, besides exchanging opinions with friends, agents observe a…
Decisions in organizations are about evaluating alternatives and choosing the one that would best serve organizational goals. To the extent that the evaluation of alternatives could be formulated as a predictive task with appropriate…
A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…
Positional bias in binary question answering occurs when a model systematically favors one choice over another based solely on the ordering of presented options. In this study, we quantify and analyze positional bias across five large…
Interest in how democracies form consensus has increased recently, with statistical physics and economics approaches both suggesting that there is convergence to a fixed point in belief networks, but with fluctuations in opinions when there…
With the advent of online networks, societies are substantially more connected with individual members able to easily modify and maintain their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation…
Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational…
In this paper, we propose a pubic opinion model with incorporation of asymmetric cognitive bias: confirmation bias and negativity bias. We then investigate the generic modeling guidance of capturing asymmetric confirmation bias and…
It has been observed people tend to have opinions that are far more internally consistent than it would be reasonable to expect. Here, we study how that observation might emerge from changing how agents trust the opinions of their peers in…
Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims…
Online social networks provide users with unprecedented opportunities to engage with diverse opinions. At the same time, they enable confirmation bias on large scales by empowering individuals to self-select narratives they want to be…
The effect of bias on hypothesis formation is characterized for an automated data-driven projection pursuit neural network to extract and select features for binary classification of data streams. This intelligent exploratory process…
A myriad of explainability methods have been proposed in recent years, but there is little consensus on how to evaluate them. While automatic metrics allow for quick benchmarking, it isn't clear how such metrics reflect human interaction…
This paper proposes a unified theoretical model to identify and test a comprehensive set of probabilistic updating biases within a single framework. The model achieves separate identification by focusing on the updating of belief…
People sometimes change their opinions when they discuss things with other people. Researchers can use mathematics to study opinion changes in simplifications of real-life situations. These simplified settings, which are examples of…
Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…
Confirmation bias and peer pressure both have substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution.…
Online users tend to select claims that adhere to their system of beliefs and to ignore dissenting information. Confirmation bias, indeed, plays a pivotal role in viral phenomena. Furthermore, the wide availability of content on the web…