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Structural break identification methods are an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we introduce a unified probabilistic framework for detecting structural breaks with unknown…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…
In this paper, we consider detecting and estimating breaks in heterogeneous mean functions of high-dimensional functional time series which are allowed to be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. A new test statistic…
We consider the problem of estimating a time-varying sparse precision matrix, which is assumed to evolve in a piece-wise constant manner. Building upon the Group Fused LASSO and LASSO penalty functions, we estimate both the network…
Current methods for determining whether a time series exhibits fractal structure (FS) rely on subjective assessments on estimators of the Hurst exponent (H). Here, I introduce the Bayesian Assessment of Scaling, an analytical framework for…
Monitoring economic conditions and financial stability with an early warning system serves as a prevention mechanism for unexpected economic events. In this paper, we investigate the statistical performance of sequential break-point…
This paper considers the problem of estimating an unknown high dimensional signal from noisy linear measurements, {when} the signal is assumed to possess a \emph{group-sparse} structure in a {known,} fixed dictionary. We consider signals…
In this paper, we propose a novel method to select significant variables and estimate the corresponding coefficients in multiple-index models with a group structure. All existing approaches for single-index models cannot be extended…
Consider the detection of a sparse change in high-dimensional time-series. We introduce Sparsity Likelihood-based (SL-based) score and the change-points detection procedure in multivariate normal model with general covariance structure.…
This article investigates the support detection problem using the LASSO estimator in the space of measures. More precisely, we study the recovery of a discrete measure (spike train) from few noisy observations (Fourier samples, moments...)…
Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a…
A sparse modeling is a major topic in machine learning and statistics. LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) is a popular sparse modeling method while it has been known to yield unexpected large bias especially at a sparse…
In high-dimensional statistical inference in which the number of parameters to be estimated is larger than that of the holding data, regularized linear estimation techniques are widely used. These techniques have, however, some drawbacks.…
We consider panel data models where coefficients change smoothly over time and follow a latent group structure, being homogeneous within but heterogeneous across groups. To jointly estimate the group membership and group-specific…
We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs…
We consider the problem of efficient financial surveillance aimed at "on-the-go" detection of structural breaks (anomalies) in "live"-monitored financial time series. With the problem approached statistically, viz. as that of multi-cyclic…
The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…
The development of algorithms for secure state estimation in vulnerable cyber-physical systems has been gaining attention in the last years. A consolidated assumption is that an adversary can tamper a relatively small number of sensors. In…
We introduce a generic estimator for the false discovery rate of any model selection procedure, in common statistical modeling settings including the Gaussian linear model, Gaussian graphical model, and model-X setting. We prove that our…
This paper addresses the problem of identifying sparse linear time-invariant (LTI) systems from a single sample trajectory generated by the system dynamics. We introduce a Lasso-like estimator for the parameters of the system, taking into…