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Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

We present Vector-Space Markov Random Fields (VS-MRFs), a novel class of undirected graphical models where each variable can belong to an arbitrary vector space. VS-MRFs generalize a recent line of work on scalar-valued, uni-parameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-20 Wesley Tansey , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Arun Sai Suggala , Pradeep Ravikumar

Variable-length Markov chains on finite quivers provide a natural framework for context-dependent stochastic growth under incidence constraints. I study quiver-valued variable-length Markov chains observed through finite boundary windows…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Oleg Kiriukhin

This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-18 Qian Qin

The particle Gibbs (PG) sampler is a systematic way of using a particle filter within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This results in an off-the-shelf Markov kernel on the space of state trajectories, which can be used to simulate from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-24 Fredrik Lindsten , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines

Normalization, $D(X + 1) \to D(X) + 1$, is almost a distributive law; but because one of the distributive law axioms only holds up-to-idempotent, it yields a non-associative composition of normalized kernels. We introduce the Markov magmoid…

Category Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Elena Di Lavore , Mario Román , Márk Széles

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-04 Alessandro Mastrototaro , Jimmy Olsson

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that allows to sample high dimensional probability measures. It relies on the integration of the Hamiltonian dynamics to propose a move which is then accepted or rejected…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-08 Tony Lelièvre , Régis Santet , Gabriel Stoltz

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation method commonly used for estimating expectations with respect to a given distribution. We consider estimating the covariance matrix of the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-06 Ning Dai , Galin L. Jones

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

The Importance Markov chain is a novel algorithm bridging the gap between rejection sampling and importance sampling, moving from one to the other through a tuning parameter. Based on a modified sample of an instrumental Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2024-02-27 Charly Andral , Randal Douc , Hugo Marival , Christian P. Robert

Let X be a Tychonoff space and MC(X) be the space of convex minimal usco maps with values in R, the space of real numbers. Such set-valued maps are important in the study of subdifferentials of convex functions. Using the strong Choquet…

General Topology · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Ľubica Holá , Branislav Novotný

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are invaluable tools for exploring stationary properties of physical systems, especially in situations where direct sampling is unfeasible. Common implementations of Monte Carlo algorithms employ…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-04-27 Marija Vucelja

The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of(undirected) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the sampling. The…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-12-18 Catherine Greenhill

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-20 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

Computer power is a constantly increasing demand in scientific data analyses, in particular when Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are involved, for example for estimating integral functions or Bayesian posterior probabilities. In…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-10-09 Fabio Castagna , Alberto Trombetta , Marco Landoni , Stefano Andreon

The present paper focuses on the problem of sampling from a given target distribution $\pi$ defined on some general state space. To this end, we introduce a novel class of non-reversible Markov chains, each chain being defined on an…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-16 Randal Douc , Alain Durmus , Aurélien Enfroy , Jimmy Olsson

The transition matrix of a Markov chain $(X_k,k\geq 0)$ on a finite or infinite rooted tree is said to be almost upper-directed if, given $X_k$, the node $X_{k+1}$ is either a descendant of $X_k$ or the parent of $X_k$. It is said to be…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Luis Fredes , Jean-François Marckert

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has been increasingly popular in Bayesian learning due to its ability to deal with large data. A standard SG-MCMC algorithm simulates samples from a discretized-time Markov chain to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-30 Changyou Chen , Ruiyi Zhang