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Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Pierre Boudier , Anthony Fillion , Serge Gratton , Selime Gürol , Sixin Zhang

Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Andrea Nóvoa , Alberto Racca , Luca Magri

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a widely used method for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, with an ensemble update step equivalent to an empirical version of the Matheron update popular in Gaussian process regression -- a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Dan MacKinlay

Performing Data Assimilation (DA) at a low cost is of prime concern in Earth system modeling, particularly at the time of big data where huge quantities of observations are available. Capitalizing on the ability of Neural Networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-24 Mathis Peyron , Anthony Fillion , Selime Gürol , Victor Marchais , Serge Gratton , Pierre Boudier , Gael Goret

This study considers the data assimilation problem in coupled systems, which consists of two components (sub-systems) interacting with each other through certain coupling terms. A straightforward way to tackle the assimilation problem in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-22 Xiaodong Luo , Ibrahim Hoteit

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Phillip Si , Peng Chen

This work develops a new multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) algorithm based on linear control variate framework. The approach allows for rigorous multifidelity extensions of the EnKF, where the uncertainty in coarser fidelities…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-03 Andrey A Popov , Changhong Mou , Traian Iliescu , Adrian Sandu

Contemporary data assimilation often involves more than a million prediction variables. Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have been developed by geoscientists. They are successful indispensable tools in science and engineering, because they…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-26 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

A hybrid data assimilation algorithm is developed for complex dynamical systems with partial observations. The method starts with applying a spectral decomposition to the entire spatiotemporal fields, followed by creating a machine learning…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-12-27 Changhong Mou , Leslie M. Smith , Nan Chen

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based mixed model (EnKF-MM) is proposed for the subgrid-scale (SGS) closure in the large-eddy simulation (LES) of turbulence. The model coefficients are determined through the EnKF-based data assimilation…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-08-16 Yunpeng Wang , Zelong Yuan , Jianchun Wang

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-17 D. T. B. Kelly , K. J. H. Law , A. M. Stuart

This paper presents the machine learning-based ensemble conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) -- a filtering method based on the conditional mean filter (CMF) previously introduced in the literature. The updated mean of the CMF matches that of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Truong-Vinh Hoang , Sebastian Krumscheid , Hermann G. Matthies , Raúl Tempone

This paper develops efficient ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implementations based on shrinkage covariance estimation. The forecast ensemble members at each step are used to estimate the background error covariance matrix via the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Elias D. Nino-Ruiz , Adrian Sandu

The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-24 Tadeo Javier Cocucci , Manuel Pulido , Magdalena Lucini , Pierre Tandeo

Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) is a popular technique for data assimilation, with far ranging applications. However, the vanilla EnKF framework is not well-defined when perturbations are nonlinear. We study two non-linear extensions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-24 Zachariah Malik , Romit Maulik

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Brian R. Hunt , Eric J. Kostelich , Istvan Szunyogh

A Data Assimilation (DA) strategy based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to enhance the predictive capabilities of scale resolving numerical tools for the analysis of flows exhibiting cyclic behaviour. More precisely, an ensemble…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-03-20 Lucas Villanueva , Karine Truffin , Jacques Borée , Marcello Meldi

Traditional data assimilation uses information obtained from the propagation of one physics-driven model and combines it with information derived from real-world observations in order to obtain a better estimate of the truth of some natural…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

We introduce a score-filter-enhanced data assimilation framework designed to reduce predictive uncertainty in machine learning (ML) models for data-driven dynamical system forecasting. Machine learning serves as an efficient numerical model…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Jingqiao Tang , Ryan Bausback , Feng Bao , Guannan Zhang , Phuoc-Toan Huynh

Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface groundwater models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-11-09 Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih , Mohamad El Gharamti , Ibrahim Hoteit