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This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin , Christian P. Robert

Time series of counts are frequently analyzed using generalized integer-valued autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH). These models employ response functions to map a vector of past observations and past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-04 Malte Jahn

We introduce GP-FNARX: a new model for nonlinear system identification based on a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) with filtered regressors (F) where the nonlinear regression problem is tackled using sparse Gaussian processes…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-18 Roger Frigola , Carl Edward Rasmussen

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Edwin V. Bonilla , Karl Krauth , Amir Dezfouli

Integer-valued time series exist widely in economics, finance, biology, computer science, medicine, insurance, and many other fields. In recent years, many types of models have been proposed to model integer-valued time series data, in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Ying Wang , Shuang Chen , Lianyong Qian

Although many time series are realizations from discrete processes, it is often that a continuous Gaussian model is implemented for modeling and forecasting the data, resulting in incoherent forecasts. Forecasts using a Poisson-Lindley…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-31 Rachel D. Gidaro , Jane L. Harvill

The behavior of a generalized random environment integer-valued autoregressive model of higher order with geometric marginal distribution {and negative binomial thinning operator} (abbrev. $RrNGINAR(\mathcal{M,A,P})$) is dictated by a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-19 Bogdan A. Pirković , Petra N. Laketa , Aleksandar S. Nastić

In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-30 Niharika Bhootna , Arun Kumar

Kernel logistic regression (KLR) is a powerful classification method widely applied across diverse domains. In many real-world scenarios, indefinite kernels capture more domain-specific structural information than positive definite kernels.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Shaoxin Wang , Hanjing Yao

We discuss joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of strictly stationary INteger-valued AutoRegressive processes of order 1 (INAR(1)) with random coefficient $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and with idiosyncratic Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-19 Matyas Barczy , Fanni Nedényi , Gyula Pap

Linear regression is effective at identifying interpretable trends in a data set, but averages out potentially different effects on subgroups within data. We propose an iterative algorithm based on the randomized Kaczmarz (RK) method to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-12-09 Erin George , Yotam Yaniv , Deanna Needell

For modeling the serial dependence in time series of counts, various approaches have been proposed in the literature. In particular, models based on a recursive, autoregressive-type structure such as the well-known integer-valued…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch

We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-27 Rahul Singh , Yongxin Chen

In the fields of sociology and economics, the modeling of matrix-variate integervalued time series is urgent. However, no prior studies have addressed the modeling of such data. To address this topic, this paper proposes a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Nuo Xu , Kai Yang , Fukang Zhu

In this article, we discuss some geometric infinitely divisible (gid) random variables using the Laplace exponents which are Bernstein functions and study their properties. The distributional properties and limiting behavior of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Monika Singh Dhull , Arun Kumar

The integer autoregressive (INAR) model is one of the most commonly used models in nonnegative integer-valued time series analysis and is a counterpart to the traditional autoregressive model for continuous-valued time series. To guarantee…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Yuichi Goto , Kou Fujimori

Most of the stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued (INAR(1)) models were developed for a given thinning operator using either the forward approach or the backward approach. In the forward approach the marginal distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-22 Emad-Eldin AA Aly , Nadjib Bouzar

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-04 Takuo Matsubara , Jeremias Knoblauch , François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Hanna Gruber , Moritz Jirak

This paper presents the generalized spatial autoregression (GSAR) model, a significant advance in spatial econometrics for non-normal response variables belonging to the exponential family. The GSAR model extends the logistic SAR, probit…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 N. A. Cruz , J. D. Toloza-Delgado , O. O. Melo