English
Related papers

Related papers: A Population's Feasible Posterior Beliefs

200 papers

We study a model of a population making a binary decision based on information spreading within the population, which is fully connected or covering a square grid. We assume that a fraction of the population wants to make the choice of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-24 Petter Holme , Hang-Hyun Jo

We study a model of information aggregation and social learning recently proposed by Jadbabaie, Sandroni, and Tahbaz-Salehi, in which individual agents try to learn a correct state of the world by iteratively updating their beliefs using…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-03-24 Pooya Molavi , Ali Jadbabaie

We study the problem of eliciting and aggregating probabilistic information from multiple agents. In order to successfully aggregate the predictions of agents, the principal needs to elicit some notion of confidence from agents, capturing…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-10-03 Rafael M. Frongillo , Yiling Chen , Ian A. Kash

We study the Bayesian model of opinion exchange of fully rational agents arranged on a network. In this model, the agents receive private signals that are indicative of an unkown state of the world. Then, they repeatedly announce the state…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2018-09-05 Jan Hązła , Ali Jadbabaie , Elchanan Mossel , M. Amin Rahimian

Bayesian persuasion is the study of information sharing policies among strategic agents. A prime example is signaling in online ad auctions: what information should a platform signal to an advertiser regarding a user when selling the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Yakov Babichenko , Inbal Talgam-Cohen , Konstantin Zabarnyi

It has been observed people tend to have opinions that are far more internally consistent than it would be reasonable to expect. Here, we study how that observation might emerge from changing how agents trust the opinions of their peers in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-15 Marcelo V. Maciel , André C. R. Martins

Population protocols are a relatively novel computational model in which very resource-limited anonymous agents interact in pairs with the goal of computing predicates. We consider the probabilistic version of this model, which naturally…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Vladyslav Melnychuk

The emergence of opinion polarization within human communities -- the phenomenon that individuals within a society tend to develop conflicting attitudes related to the greatest diversity of topics -- has been a focus of interest for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-05 Anna Zafeiris

The Simulation Argument posed by Bostrom (2003) suggests that we may be living inside a sophisticated computer simulation. If post-human civilizations eventually have both the capability and desire to generate such Bostrom-like simulations,…

Popular Physics · Physics 2020-08-28 David Kipping

Collective intelligence is believed to underly the remarkable success of human society. The formation of accurate shared beliefs is one of the key components of human collective intelligence. How are accurate shared beliefs formed in groups…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2016-08-08 Peter M. Krafft , Julia Zheng , Wei Pan , Nicolás Della Penna , Yaniv Altshuler , Erez Shmueli , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Alex Pentland

We propose a new notion of credibility for Bayesian persuasion problems. A disclosure policy is credible if the sender cannot profit from tampering with her messages while keeping the message distribution unchanged. We show that the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-10 Xiao Lin , Ce Liu

A sender first publicly commits to an experiment and then can privately run additional experiments and selectively disclose their outcomes to a receiver. The sender has private information about the maximal number of additional experiments…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-12 Yifan Dai , Drew Fudenberg , Harry Pei

We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number $k$ that expresses its level of agreement…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-05-30 C. E. La Rocca , L. A. Braunstein , F. Vazquez

We study public persuasion when a sender communicates with a large audience that can fact-check at heterogeneous costs. The sender commits to a public information policy before the state is realized, but any verifiable claim she makes after…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-07 Georgy Lukyanov , Samuel Safaryan

We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Matteo Bollini , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

In this article, we relax the Bayesianity assumption in the now-traditional model of Bayesian Persuasion introduced by Kamenica & Gentzkow. Unlike preexisting approaches -- which have tackled the possibility of the receiver (Bob) being…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Olivier Massicot , Cédric Langbort

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-04 Daniel Williamson , Michael Goldstein

Perceptions of political bias in the media are formed directly, through the independent consumption of the published outputs of a media organization, and indirectly, through observing the collective responses of political allies and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-28 Nicholas Kah Yean Low , Andrew Melatos

For a setting in which a large number of asymmetrically informed agents are randomly matched into groups over time, exchanging their information with each other when matched, we provide an explicit solution for the dynamics of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-20 Darrell Duffie , Gaston Giroux , Gustavo Manso

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stephen Bates , Michael I. Jordan , Michael Sklar , Jake A. Soloff