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This paper investigates the use of synthetic control methods for causal inference in macroeconomic settings when dealing with possibly nonstationary data. While the synthetic control approach has gained popularity for estimating…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Zhentao Shi , Jin Xi , Haitian Xie

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Qi Zhang , Harsh Parikh , Ashley Naimi , Razieh Nabi , Christopher Kim , Timothy Lash

Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

In this paper we look at popular fairness methods that use causal counterfactuals. These methods capture the intuitive notion that a prediction is fair if it coincides with the prediction that would have been made if someone's race, gender…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-12 Jake Fawkes , Robin Evans , Dino Sejdinovic

Counterfactuals have been recognized as an effective approach to explain classifier decisions. Nevertheless, they have not yet been considered in the context of clustering. In this work, we propose the use of counterfactuals to explain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Georgios Vardakas , Antonia Karra , Evaggelia Pitoura , Aristidis Likas

We introduce an extension of team semantics which provides a framework for the logic of manipulationist theories of causation based on structural equation models, such as Woodward's and Pearl's; our causal teams incorporate (partial or…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-01-04 Fausto Barbero , Gabriel Sandu

Clinical decision making requires counterfactual reasoning based on a factual medical image and thus necessitates causal image synthesis. To this end, we present a novel method for modeling the causality between demographic variables,…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-28 Yujia Li , Jiong Shi , S. Kevin Zhou

This article extends the widely-used synthetic controls estimator for evaluating causal effects of policy changes to quantile functions. The proposed method provides a geometrically faithful estimate of the entire counterfactual quantile…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-03 Florian Gunsilius

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) provide a popular causal modeling framework. In this work, we show that SCMs are not flexible enough to give a complete causal representation of dynamical systems at equilibrium. Instead, we propose a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-08-07 Tineke Blom , Stephan Bongers , Joris M. Mooij

Of late, in order to have better acceptability among various domain, researchers have argued that machine intelligence algorithms must be able to provide explanations that humans can understand causally. This aspect, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Satyam Kumar , Vadlamani Ravi

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Yikang Chen , Dehui Du , Lili Tian

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Thong Nguyen , Truc-My Nguyen

A crucial input into causal inference is the imputed counterfactual outcome. Imputation error can arise because of sampling uncertainty from estimating the prediction model using the untreated observations, or from out-of-sample information…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-20 Silvia Goncalves , Serena Ng

Counterfactual reasoning has emerged as a crucial technique for generalizing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). By generating and analyzing counterfactual scenarios, researchers can assess the adaptability and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Shuai Yang , Qi Yang , Luoxi Tang , Yuqiao Meng , Nancy Guo , Jeremy Blackburn , Zhaohan Xi

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Counterfactual explanations provide ways of achieving a favorable model outcome with minimum input perturbation. However, counterfactual explanations can also be leveraged to reconstruct the model by strategically training a surrogate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

Sequential recommender systems have achieved state-of-the-art recommendation performance by modeling the sequential dynamics of user activities. However, in most recommendation scenarios, the popular items comprise the major part of the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Yi Ren , Xu Zhao , Hongyan Tang , Shuai Li

Simulation methods are among the most ubiquitous methodological tools in statistical science. In particular, statisticians often is simulation to explore properties of statistical functionals in models for which developed statistical theory…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Tyrel Stokes , Ian Shrier , Russell Steele