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We consider identification and inference about a counterfactual outcome mean when there is unmeasured confounding using tools from proximal causal inference (Miao et al. [2018], Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. [2020]). Proximal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Jeffrey Zhang , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Recent advances in probabilistic generative modeling have motivated learning Structural Causal Models (SCM) from observational datasets using deep conditional generative models, also known as Deep Structural Causal Models (DSCM). If…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-24 Arash Nasr-Esfahany , Emre Kiciman

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Alexander Balke , Judea Pearl

In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Archer Gong Zhang , Nancy Reid , Qiang Sun

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

Structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful tool for understanding the complex causal relationships that underlie many real-world systems. As these systems grow in size, the number of variables and complexity of interactions between them…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Moritz Willig , Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Physical and optical factors interacting with sensor characteristics create complex image degradation patterns. Despite advances in deep learning-based super-resolution, existing methods overlook the causal nature of degradation by adopting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Zhengyang Lu , Bingjie Lu , Feng Wang

In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

We consider the problem of causal inference based on observational data (or the related missing data problem) with a binary or discrete treatment variable. In that context, we study inference for the counterfactual density functions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-13 Daeyoung Ham , Ted Westling , Charles R. Doss

Counterfactual fairness alleviates the discrimination between the model prediction toward an individual in the actual world (observational data) and that in counterfactual world (i.e., what if the individual belongs to other sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Synthetic control (SC) methods have been widely applied to estimate the causal effect of large-scale interventions, e.g., the state-wide effect of a change in policy. The idea of synthetic controls is to approximate one unit's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-15 Claudia Shi , Dhanya Sridhar , Vishal Misra , David M. Blei

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Miguel Monteiro , Nick Pawlowski , Ben Glocker

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Pengcheng Tan , Jiang Chen , Dehui Du

We mathematically axiomatise the stochastics of counterfactuals, by introducing two related frameworks, called counterfactual probability spaces and counterfactual causal spaces, which we collectively term counterfactual spaces. They are,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Junhyung Park , Fanny Yang , Thomas Icard

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser