Related papers: Bayesian Imputation with Optimal Look-Ahead-Bias a…
Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of…
Missing data is a common problem in real-world sensor data collection. The performance of various approaches to impute data degrade rapidly in the extreme scenarios of low data sampling and noisy sampling, a case present in many real-world…
Logistic regression models for binomial responses are routinely used in statistical practice. However, the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist due to data separability. We address this issue by considering a conjugate prior penalty…
In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider…
Structural missingness breaks 'just impute and train': values can be undefined by causal or logical constraints, and the mask may depend on observed variables, unobserved variables (MNAR), and other missingness indicators. It simultaneously…
Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…
Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…
In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…
The celebrated Bernstein von-Mises theorem ensures that credible regions from Bayesian posterior are well-calibrated when the model is correctly-specified, in the frequentist sense that their coverage probabilities tend to the nominal…
Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…
It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…
Multivariate time series alignment is critical for ensuring coherent analysis across variables, but missing values and timestamp inconsistencies make this task highly challenging. Existing approaches often rely on prior imputation, which…
This paper considers data-driven chance-constrained stochastic optimization problems in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian posteriors afford a principled mechanism to incorporate data and prior knowledge into stochastic optimization problems.…
We provide guidance on multiple imputation of missing at random treatments in observational studies. Specifically, analysts should account for both covariates and outcomes, i.e., not just use propensity scores, when imputing the missing…
In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…
Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…
Missing data is a common problem in finance and often requires methods to fill in the gaps, or in other words, imputation. In this work, we focused on the imputation of missing implied volatilities for FX options. Prior work has used…
Multivariate time-series data are used in many classification and regression predictive tasks, and recurrent models have been widely used for such tasks. Most common recurrent models assume that time-series data elements are of equal length…
Preferential Bayesian optimisation (PBO) deals with optimisation problems where the objective function can only be accessed via preference judgments, such as "this is better than that" between two candidate solutions (like in A/B tests or…
Missing data are ubiquitous in empirical databases, yet statistical analyses typically require complete data matrices. Multiple imputation offers a principled solution for filling these gaps. This study evaluates the performance of several…