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Inter-channel mis-synchronisation can be a limiting factor to the time resolution of high performance timing detectors with multiple readout channels and independent electronics units. In these systems, time calibration methods employed…
New goodness-of-fit tests for Markovian models in time series analysis are developed which are based on the difference between a fully nonparametric estimate of the one-step transition distribution function of the observed process and that…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are standard models for probabilistic systems with non-deterministic behaviours. Mean payoff (or long-run average reward) provides a mathematically elegant formalism to express performance related…
Metastability is a physical phenomenon ubiquitous in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with Statistical…
We consider a finite number of $N$ statistically equal agents, each moving on a finite set of states according to a continuous-time Markov Decision Process (MDP). Transition intensities of the agents and generated rewards depend not only on…
We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…
We consider a system of $N$ particles interacting through their empirical distribution on a finite state space in continuous time. In the formal limit as $N\to\infty$, the system takes the form of a nonlinear (McKean--Vlasov) Markov chain.…
We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…
Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) admits three fundamental control parameters: the number of chains, the length of the warmup phase, and the length of the sampling phase. These control parameters play a large role in determining the…
Continuous-time measurements are instrumental for a multitude of tasks in quantum engineering and quantum control, including the estimation of dynamical parameters of open quantum systems monitored through the environment. However, such…
Sequential scaling is a prominent inference-time scaling paradigm, yet its performance improvements are typically modest and not well understood, largely due to the prevalence of heuristic, non-principled approaches that obscure clear…
An efficient and accurate iterative scheme for the computation of the mean first passage times (MFPTs) of ergodic Markov chains has been presented. Firstly, the computation problem of MFPTs is transformed into a set of linear equations. It…
In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…
Mean-field models approximate large stochastic systems by simpler differential equations that are supposed to approximate the mean of the larger system. It is generally assumed that as the stochastic systems get larger (i.e., more people or…
We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, the known approaches to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based in the assumption…
Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on…
Semi-Markov processes play an important role in the effective description of partially accessible systems in stochastic thermodynamics. They occur, for instance, in coarse-graining procedures such as state lumping and when analyzing waiting…
We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of…
The hitting and mixing times are two fundamental quantities associated with Markov chains. In Peres and Sousi[PS2015] and Oliveira[Oli2012], the authors show that the mixing times and "worst-case" hitting times of reversible Markov chains…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…