Related papers: Just Another Method to Compute MTTF from Continuou…

Let 0<\alpha<1/2. We show that the mixing time of a continuous-time reversible Markov chain on a finite state space is about as large as the largest expected hitting time of a subset of stationary measure at least \alpha of the state space.…

The Markov Transition Field (MTF), introduced by Wang and Oates (2015), encodes a time series as a two-dimensional image by mapping each pair of time steps to the transition probability between their quantile states, estimated from a single…

Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…

Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…

Predicting unscheduled breakdowns of plasma etching equipment can reduce maintenance costs and production losses in the semiconductor industry. However, plasma etching is a complex procedure and it is hard to capture all relevant equipment…

We give a mathematical framework for Exact Milestoning, a recently introduced algorithm for mapping a continuous time stochastic process into a Markov chain or semi-Markov process that can be efficiently simulated and analyzed. We…

Hidden Markov chains are widely applied statistical models of stochastic processes, from fundamental physics and chemistry to finance, health, and artificial intelligence. The hidden Markov processes they generate are notoriously…

We propose a computational method for large deviation statistics of time-averaged quantities in general Markov processes. In our proposed method, we repeat a response measurement against external forces, where the forces are determined by…

Slow mixing is the central hurdle when working with Markov chains, especially those used for Monte Carlo approximations (MCMC). In many applications, it is only of interest to estimate the stationary expectations of a small set of…

This paper proposes a new extension of the linear failure rate (LFR) model to better capture real-world lifetime data. The model incorporates an additional shape parameter to increase flexibility. It helps model the minimum survival time…

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

The mean time taken by an irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space to hit a target chosen at random according to the stationary distribution does not depend on the initial state of the chain. This mean time is known as Kemeny's…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and…

This paper introduces a novel approach to time series classification using a Markov Transition Field (MTF)-aided Transformer model, specifically designed for Software-Defined Networks (SDNs). The proposed model integrates the temporal…

Mass spectrometry is a widespread approach to work out what are the constituents of a material. Atoms and molecules are removed from the material and collected, and subsequently, a critical step is to infer their correct identities based…

There are known expressions to calculate the moments of the first passage time in Markov chains. Nevertheless, it is commonly forgotten that in most applications the parameters of the Markov chain are constructed using estimates based upon…

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

We consider stochastic optimization problems where data is drawn from a Markov chain. Existing methods for this setting crucially rely on knowing the mixing time of the chain, which in real-world applications is usually unknown. We propose…

We consider a random walk with catastrophes which was introduced to model population biology. It is known that this Markov chain gets eventually absorbed at $0$ for all parameter values. Recently, it has been shown that this chain exhibits…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…