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This paper deals with asymptotic expressions of the Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) and higher moments for large, recursive, and non-repairable systems in the context of two-terminal reliability. Our aim is to extend the well-known results of…
Continuous Time Markov Chain (CMTC) is widely used to describe and analyze systems in several knowledge areas. Steady state availability is one important analysis that can be made through Markov chain formalism that allows researchers…
The convergence rate of a Markov chain to its stationary distribution is typically assessed using the concept of total variation mixing time. However, this worst-case measure often yields pessimistic estimates and is challenging to infer…
Many large-scale software systems demonstrate metastable failures. In this class of failures, a stressor such as a temporary spike in workload causes the system performance to drop and, subsequently, the system performance continues to…
For many stochastic dynamic systems, the Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) is a useful concept, which gives expected time before a state of interest. This work is an extension of MFPT in several ways. (1) We show that for some systems the…
The stochastic properties of a Langevin-type Markov process can be extracted from a given time series by a Markov analysis. Also processes that obey a stochastically forced second order differential equation can be analyzed this way by…
Detecting and resolving violations of temporal constraints in real-time systems is both, time-consuming and resource-intensive, particularly in complex software environments. Measurement-based approaches are widely used during development,…
Studies of fixation dynamics in Markov processes predominantly focus on the mean time to absorption. This may be inadequate if the distribution is broad and skewed. We compute the distribution of fixation times in one-step birth-death…
In this paper, we consider the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for random sampling of combinatorial objects. The running time of such an algorithm depends on the total mixing time of the underlying Markov chain and is unknown in…
In this paper, we analyze the number of departures from an initially empty $M/M/\infty$ system in a finite time interval. We observe the system during an exponentially distributed period of time starting from the time origin. We then…
Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…
We consider the problem of assigning tasks efficiently to a set of workers that can exhaust themselves as a result of processing tasks. If a worker is exhausted, it will take a longer time to recover. To model efficiency of workers with…
Markov state models (MSMs) are widely employed to analyze the kinetics of complex systems. But despite their effectiveness in many applications, MSMs are prone to systematic or statistical errors, often exacerbated by suboptimal…
Consider a system of \(n\) players in which each initially starts on a different team. At each time step, we select an individual winner and an individual loser randomly and the loser joins the winner's team. The resulting Markov chain and…
An important problem in the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is to determine the convergence time, or the number of iterations before the chain is close to stationarity. For many Markov chains used in practice this time…
Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…
This paper is focused on survival analysis of electrical components. The main goal of this paper is to develop a method for on-line estimation of the Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) of electrical components under dynamic stress levels. The…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
We are concerned with the computation of the mean-time-to-absorption (MTTA) for a large system of loosely interconnected components, modeled as continuous time Markov chains. In particular, we show that splitting the local and…
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…