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Bayesian optimal design is considered for experiments where the response distribution depends on the solution to a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The motivation is an experiment to estimate parameters in the equations…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-02 Antony Overstall , David Woods , Ben Parker

We study the bounds of mediated communication in sender-receiver games in which the sender's payoff is state-independent. We show that the feasible distributions over the receiver's beliefs under mediation are those that induce zero…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-11-14 Roberto Corrao , Yifan Dai

We focus on the following natural question: is it possible to influence the outcome of a voting process through the strategic provision of information to voters who update their beliefs rationally? We investigate whether it is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Matteo Castiglioni , Andrea Celli , Nicola Gatti

We introduce the concept of leakage-robust Bayesian persuasion. Situated between public persuasion [KG11, CCG23, Xu20] and private persuasion [AB19], leakage-robust persuasion considers a setting where one or more signals privately sent by…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Nika Haghtalab , Mingda Qiao , Kunhe Yang

The design of informatively rich input signals is essential for accurate system identification, yet classical Fisher-information-based methods are inherently local and often inadequate in the presence of significant model uncertainty and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-15 Piotr Bania , Anna Wójcik

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Ahmed Attia , Sven Leyffer , Todd Munson

In this paper, we introduce a robust sensor design framework to provide "persuasion-based" defense in stochastic control systems against an unknown type attacker with a control objective exclusive to its type. For effective control, such an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-15 Muhammed O. Sayin , Tamer Basar

This paper studies a game in which an informed sender with state-independent preferences uses verifiable messages to convince a receiver to choose an action from a finite set. We characterize the equilibrium outcomes of the game and compare…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-10 Maria Titova , Kun Zhang

We introduce a model of sender-receiver stopping games, where the state of the world follows an iid--process throughout the game. At each period, the sender observes the current state, and sends a message to the receiver, suggesting either…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-04-07 Aditya Aradhye , János Flesch , Mathias Staudigl , Dries Vermeulen

Recent advances in multi-task peer prediction have greatly expanded our knowledge about the power of multi-task peer prediction mechanisms. Various mechanisms have been proposed in different settings to elicit different types of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Shuran Zheng , Fang-Yi Yu , Yiling Chen

We define a model of interactive communication where two agents with private types can exchange information before a game is played. The model contains Bayesian persuasion as a special case of a one-round communication protocol. We define…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Jieming Mao , Renato Paes Leme , Kangning Wang

Artificial Intelligence (AI), and in particular, the explainability thereof, has gained phenomenal attention over the last few years. Whilst we usually do not question the decision-making process of these systems in situations where only…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Iena Petronella Derks , Alta de Waal

This paper studies the semi-parametric identification and estimation of a rational inattention model with Bayesian persuasion. The identification requires the observation of a cross-section of market-level outcomes. The empirical content of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-18 Moyu Liao

We consider the problem of dynamic information design with one sender and one receiver where the sender observers a private state of the system and takes an action to send a signal based on its observation to a receiver. Based on this…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-05-18 Deepanshu Vasal

In many settings, such as scientific inference, optimization, and transfer learning, the learner has a well-defined objective, which can be treated as estimation of a target parameter, and no intrinsic interest in characterizing the entire…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Sabina J. Sloman , Ayush Bharti , Julien Martinelli , Samuel Kaski

In a multi-channel marketing world, the purchase decision journey encounters many interactions (e.g., email, mobile notifications, display advertising, social media, and so on). These impressions have direct (main effects), as well as…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-01 Ritwik Sinha , David Arbour , Aahlad Manas Puli

Bayesian optimal experiments that maximize the information gained from collected data are critical to efficiently identify behavioral models. We extend a seminal method for designing Bayesian optimal experiments by introducing two…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Stefano Balietti , Brennan Klein , Christoph Riedl

When people choose what messages to send to others, they often consider how others will interpret the messages. A sender may expect a receiver to engage in motivated reasoning, leading the receiver to trust good news more than bad news,…

General Economics · Economics 2023-10-02 Michael Thaler

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi