Related papers: Backcasting COVID-19: A Physics-Informed Estimate …

We introduce a system of differential equations to assess the impact of (self-)quarantine of symptomatic infectious individuals on disease dynamics. To this end we depart from using the classic bilinear infection process, but remain still…

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is within 3%. At the same time, it realized forward…

Background: Wuhan, China was the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of current study is to understand the infection transmission dynamics before intervention measures were taken. Methods: Data and key events were searched through…

The very first infected novel coronavirus case (COVID-19) was found in Hubei, China in Dec. 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic has spread over 214 countries and areas in the world, and has significantly affected every aspect of our daily lives. At…

The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and…

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…

The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind…

We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 for some selected countries after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan City, China. We estimated the infection rate and the initial infected individuals of COVID-19 by using the officially…

Due to its impact, COVID-19 has been stressing the academy to search for curing, mitigating, or controlling it. However, when it comes to controlling, there are still few studies focused on under-reporting estimates. It is believed that…

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

More than ever COVID-19 is putting pressure on health systems all around the world, especially in Brazil. In this study we propose an analytical approach based on statistics and machine learning that uses lab exam data coming from patients…

We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which a network structure can be specified to deal with spatial dependence and time dependence is dealt with using an Auto-Regressive approach. A major…

As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…

We propose, implement, and evaluate a method to estimate the daily number of new symptomatic COVID-19 infections, at the level of individual U.S. counties, by deconvolving daily reported COVID-19 case counts using an estimated…