Related papers: Backcasting COVID-19: A Physics-Informed Estimate …
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, showing its usefulness with respect to the pandemic in Portugal, from the first recorded case in the country till the end of the three states of…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…
On the base of logic discrete equations system mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic spread was carried out in the world and in the countries with the largest number of infected people such as the USA, Brasil, Russia and India in the…
We present a robust data-driven machine learning analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic from its early infection dynamics, specifically infection counts over time. The goal is to extract actionable public health insights. These insights include…
Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…
The ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. It has already affected more than 300,000 people, with the number of deaths nearing 13000 across the world. As it has been posing a huge…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 or the COVID-19 pandemic has swept almost all parts of the world since the first case was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. With the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the world, SARS-CoV-2 has…
The global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in conjunction with the economic consequences and the collapse of health systems, has raised serious concerns in Europe, which is the most affected continent by the pandemic since it…
Epidemic forecasts are only as good as the accuracy of epidemic measurements. Is epidemic data, particularly COVID-19 epidemic data, clean and devoid of noise? Common sense implies the negative answer. While we cannot evaluate the…
Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases…
Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test…
Based on the SIRD-model a new model including time-delay is proposed for a description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. All data were analysed by representing all quantities as a function of the susceptible…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
The problem of dealing with misreported data is very common in a wide range of contexts for different reasons. The current situation caused by the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic is a clear example, where the data provided by official sources…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is…