Related papers: GenMarkov: Modeling Generalized Multivariate Marko…
The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…
We consider the analysis of sets of categorical sequences consisting of piecewise homogeneous Markov segments. The sequences are assumed to be governed by a common underlying process with segments occurring in the same order for each…
In sampling tasks, it is common for target distributions to be known up to a normalizing constant. However, in many situations, even evaluating the unnormalized distribution can be costly or infeasible. This issue arises in scenarios such…
We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…
The development of coalescent theory paved the way to statistical inference from population genetic data. In the genomic era, however, coalescent models are limited due to the complexity of the underlying ancestral recombination graph. The…
The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is…
In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…
A challenge for practitioners of Bayesian inference is specifying a model that incorporates multiple relevant, heterogeneous data sets. It may be easier to instead specify distinct submodels for each source of data, then join the submodels…
It is widely known that the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can degrade quickly when targeting computationally expensive posterior distributions, such as when the sample size is large. This has motivated the search for MCMC…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
We derive strong mixing conditions for many existing discrete-valued time series models that include exogenous covariates in the dynamic. Our main contribution is to study how a mixing condition on the covariate process transfers to a…
In this work we present a modified neural network model which is capable to simulate Markov Chains. We show how to express and train such a network, how to ensure given statistical properties reflected in the training data and we…
A study of time homogeneous, real valued Markov processes with a special property and a non-atomic initial distribution is provided. The new notion of a function of evolution of distribution which determines the dependency between one…
We consider Markov chains with random transition probabilities which, moreover, fluctuate randomly with time. We describe such a system by a product of stochastic matrices, $U(t)=M_t\cdots M_1$, with the factors $M_i$ drawn independently…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a popular technique in Bayesian statistical modeling. They have long been used to obtain samples from posterior distributions, but recent research has focused on the scalability of these…
In this article, we propose a novel and general dimension-hopping MCMC methodology that can update all the parameters as well as the number of parameters simultaneously using simple deterministic transformations of some low-dimensional…
Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…
We introduce the BMRMM package implementing Bayesian inference for a class of Markov renewal mixed models which can characterize the stochastic dynamics of a collection of sequences, each comprising alternative instances of categorical…
Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…