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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a widely researched topic with broad applications in weather forecasting, traffic control, and stock price prediction. Extreme values in time series often significantly impact human and natural systems, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Jincheng Wang , Yue Gao

This paper proposes a maximum-likelihood approach to jointly estimate marginal conditional quantiles of multivariate response variables in a linear regression framework. We consider a slight reparameterization of the Multivariate Asymmetric…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-06 Lea Petrella , Valentina Raponi

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh

Multivariate extreme value models are used to estimate joint risk in a number of applications, with a particular focus on environmental fields ranging from climatology and hydrology to oceanography and seismic hazards. The semi-parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-08 Ross Towe , Jonathan Tawn , Rob Lamb , Chris Sherlock

The issue of estimating residual variance in regression models has experienced relatively little attention in the machine learning community. However, the estimate is of primary interest in many practical applications, e.g. as a primary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-18 Burim Ramosaj , Markus Pauly

The emergence of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to enhance traditional classical learning methods has seen various limitations to its realisation. There is therefore an imperative to develop quantum models with unique model hypotheses to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-02-21 Maiyuren Srikumar , Charles D. Hill , Lloyd C. L. Hollenberg

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-15 Stephan Clémençon , Nathan Huet , Anne Sabourin

Traditional parametric econometric models often rely on rigid functional forms, while nonparametric techniques, despite their flexibility, frequently lack interpretability. This paper proposes a parsimonious alternative by modeling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Ricardo Masini , Marcelo Medeiros

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are ubiquitous in various fields, from finance to genomics. Despite their prevalence, the question of the efficient tuning of ensemble parameters has received relatively little attention.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Jin-Hong Du , Pratik Patil , Kathryn Roeder , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT), the focus is on analysis outside of the observable sampling zone, which implies that the region of interest is associated to high risk levels. This work provides tools to include directional…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-05 Raúl Torres , Elena Di Bernardino , Henry Laniado , Rosa E. Lillo

For the nonparametric regression models with covariates contaminated with normal measurement errors, this paper proposes an extrapolation algorithm to estimate the nonparametric regression functions. By applying the conditional expectation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-28 Weixing Song , Kanwal Ayub , Jianhong Shi

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Raphaël Huser

The randomized-feature approach has been successfully employed in large-scale kernel approximation and supervised learning. The distribution from which the random features are drawn impacts the number of features required to efficiently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-20 Shahin Shahrampour , Ahmad Beirami , Vahid Tarokh

Over-parameterized models like deep nets and random forests have become very popular in machine learning. However, the natural goals of continuity and differentiability, common in regression models, are now often ignored in modern…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Mingxuan Han , Varun Shankar , Jeff M Phillips , Chenglong Ye

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Chikara Nakamura

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-16 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

Continual learning based on data stream mining deals with ubiquitous sources of Big Data arriving at high-velocity and in real-time. Adaptive Random Forest ({\em ARF}) is a popular ensemble method used for continual learning due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Diego Marrón , Eduard Ayguadé , José Ramon Herrero , Albert Bifet

The projection pursuit regression (PPR) has played an important role in the development of statistics and machine learning. However, when compared to other established methods like random forests (RF) and support vector machines (SVM), PPR…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-19 Haoran Zhan , Mingke Zhang , Yingcun Xia