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Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Guangyi Zhang , Reza Ashrafi , Anne Juuti , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a quantitative approach to the drug benefit-risk assessment (BRA) which allows for consistent comparisons by summarising all benefits and risks in a single score. The MCDA consists of several…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-27 Tom Menzies , Gaelle Saint-Hilary , Pavel Mozgunov

Performance monitoring of machine learning (ML)-based risk prediction models in healthcare is complicated by the issue of confounding medical interventions (CMI): when an algorithm predicts a patient to be at high risk for an adverse event,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-17 Jean Feng , Alexej Gossmann , Gene Pennello , Nicholas Petrick , Berkman Sahiner , Romain Pirracchio

Most studies in real time change-point detection either focus on the linear model or use the CUSUM method under classical assumptions on model errors. This paper considers the sequential change-point detection in a nonlinear quantile model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-03 Gabriela Ciuperca

Randomized controlled trials are not only the golden standard in medicine and vaccine trials but have spread to many other disciplines like behavioral economics, making it an important interdisciplinary tool for scientists. When designing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Tassilo Schwarz

Missing data arise in most applied settings and are ubiquitous in electronic health records (EHR). When data are missing not at random (MNAR) with respect to measured covariates, sensitivity analyses are often considered. These post-hoc…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Alexander W. Levis , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Rui Wang , Heidi Fischer , Sebastien Haneuse

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Manit Paul , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Probabilistic classification of unassociated Fermi-LAT sources using machine learning methods has an implicit assumption that the distributions of associated and unassociated sources are the same as a function of source parameters, which is…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2024-01-04 Dmitry V. Malyshev

We investigate the finite sample performance of sample splitting, cross-fitting and averaging for the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect. Recently proposed methods, so-called meta-learners, make use of machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-27 Daniel Jacob

After obtaining an accurate approximation for $ARL_0$, we first consider the optimal design of weight parameter for a multivariate EWMA chart that minimizes the stationary average delay detection time (SADDT). Comparisons with moving…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Yanhong Wu , Wei Biao Wu

This article aims to consider a new univariate nonparametric cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart for small shift of location based on both change-point model and Mann-Whitney statistic. Some comparisons on the performances of the proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-21 Dabuxilatu Wang , Qiang Xiong

Background: Measurement errors in terms of quantification or classification frequently occur in epidemiologic data and can strongly impact inference. Measurement errors may occur when ascertaining, recording or extracting data. Although the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Walter K Kremers

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

In randomized trials with continuous-valued outcomes the goal is often to estimate the difference in average outcomes between two treatment groups. However, the outcome in some trials is longitudinal, meaning that multiple measurements of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-21 Alejandro Schuler

Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Kushagra Gupta , Dootika Vats

This paper considers identification and estimation of distributional effect parameters that depend on the joint distribution of an outcome and another variable of interest ("treatment") in a setting with "two-sided" measurement error --…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Brantly Callaway , Tong Li , Irina Murtazashvili , Emmanuel Tsyawo

Interval-censored data arise frequently in scientific studies, where the event of interest is known only to occur within a specific time interval. In such studies, functional covariates taking the form of continuous curves or spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Yangjianchen Xu , Peijun Sang

Traditionally, yield strength prediction relies on detailed and resource-intensive microstructural characterization combined with empirical equations. However, quantifying microstructural feature length scales for novel processes like…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-12-12 Abhinav Chandraker , Sampad Barik , Nichenametla Jai Sai , Ankur Chauhan

RDD (Regression discontinuity design) is a widely used framework for identifying and estimating causal effects at the cutoff of a single running variable. In practice, however, decision-making often involves multiple thresholds and…

In quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, energy estimators are calculated as the statistical average of the Markov chain sampling of energy estimator along with an associated statistical error. This error estimation is not straightforward and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-04-26 Tom Ichibha , Kenta Hongo , Ryo Maezono , Alex J. W. Thom