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While spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling recurring traffic patterns, their reliability plummets during non-recurring events like accidents. This failure occurs because GNNs are fundamentally correlational models,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Luyao Niu , Zepu Wang , Shuyi Guan , Yang Liu , Peng Sun

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alex Tank , Ian Covert , Nicholas Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily Fox

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Wildfire forecasting is notoriously hard due to the complex interplay of different factors such as weather conditions, vegetation types and human activities. Deep learning models show promise in dealing with this complexity by learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Shan Zhao , Ioannis Prapas , Ilektra Karasante , Zhitong Xiong , Ioannis Papoutsis , Gustau Camps-Valls , Xiao Xiang Zhu

As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Ruichu Cai , Siyang Huang , Jie Qiao , Wei Chen , Yan Zeng , Keli Zhang , Fuchun Sun , Yang Yu , Zhifeng Hao

A hallmark of life on Earth is the ability of agents to exert causal power and be drivers of subsequent events. This is key to cognition at all scales. Causal emergence, measuring the degree to which an agent exerts unique predictive power…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Federico Pigozzi , Michael Levin

Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-14 Hongteng Xu , Mehrdad Farajtabar , Hongyuan Zha

Industry-wide nuclear power plant operating experience is a critical source of raw data for performing parameter estimations in reliability and risk models. Much operating experience information pertains to failure events and is stored as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Shahidur Rahoman Sohag , Sai Zhang , Min Xian , Shoukun Sun , Fei Xu , Zhegang Ma

Causal structure learning from observational data remains a non-trivial task due to various factors such as finite sampling, unobserved confounding factors, and measurement errors. Constraint-based and score-based methods tend to suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Rezaur Rashid , Jawad Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

This paper explores the potential of the transformer models for learning Granger causality in networks with complex nonlinear dynamics at every node, as in neurobiological and biophysical networks. Our study primarily focuses on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ziyu Lu , Anika Tabassum , Shruti Kulkarni , Lu Mi , J. Nathan Kutz , Eric Shea-Brown , Seung-Hwan Lim

Causal discovery from time-series data has been a central task in machine learning. Recently, Granger causality inference is gaining momentum due to its good explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural networks. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Yuxiao Cheng , Runzhao Yang , Tingxiong Xiao , Zongren Li , Jinli Suo , Kunlun He , Qionghai Dai

Imitation learning enables high-fidelity, vision-based learning of policies within rich, photorealistic environments. However, such techniques often rely on traditional discrete-time neural models and face difficulties in generalizing to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Charles Vorbach , Ramin Hasani , Alexander Amini , Mathias Lechner , Daniela Rus

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

In this article, we describe the algorithms for causal structure learning from time series data that won the Causality 4 Climate competition at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2019 (NeurIPS). We examine how our…

Existing Continual Learning (CL) approaches have focused on addressing catastrophic forgetting by leveraging regularization methods, replay buffers, and task-specific components. However, realistic CL solutions must be shaped not only by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Jinyung Hong , Theodore P. Pavlic

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Petar Veličković , Kristian Kersting

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

Deep learning has seen widespread success in various domains such as science, industry, and society. However, it is acknowledged that certain approaches suffer from non-robustness, relying on spurious correlations for predictions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Xiaoling Zhou , Wei Ye , Rui Xie , Shikun Zhang

Through recognizing causal subgraphs, causal graph learning (CGL) has risen to be a promising approach for improving the generalizability of graph neural networks under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. However, the empirical successes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Yujia Yin , Tianyi Qu , Zihao Wang , Yifan Chen

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le