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We study the problem of incorporating risk while making combinatorial decisions under uncertainty. We formulate a discrete submodular maximization problem for selecting a set using Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk metric commonly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Lifeng Zhou , Pratap Tokekar

This paper studies flexible multi-facility capacity expansion with risk aversion. In this setting, the decision maker can periodically expand the capacity of facilities given observations of uncertain demand. We model this situation as a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-15 Sixiang Zhao , William B. Haskell , Michel-Alexandre Cardin

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Dinesh Karthik Mulumudi , Piyushi Manupriya , Gholamali Aminian , Anant Raj

We consider the portfolio optimization with risk measured by conditional value-at-risk, based on the stress event of chosen asset being equal to the opposite of its value-at-risk level, under the normality assumption. Solvability conditions…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Anna Zalewska

We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Zifan Wang , Yi Shen , Michael M. Zavlanos

This paper addresses risk averse constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions can only be computed by a blackbox subject to unknown uncertainties. To handle mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Charles Audet , Jean Bigeon , Romain Couderc , Michael Kokkolaras

Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) -- in which agents learn about all the possible long-term consequences of their actions, and not just the expected value -- is of great recent interest. One of the most important affordances of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Chris Gagne , Peter Dayan

We study a discrete-time multi-period portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the excess of Conditional Value-at-Risk over expected terminal wealth. The…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-17 Jérôme Lelong , Véronique Maume-Deschamps , William Thevenot

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Aneri Muni , Vincent Taboga , Esther Derman , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Erick Delage

We propose a distributionally robust index tracking model with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) penalty. The model combines the idea of distributionally robust optimization for data uncertainty and the CVaR penalty to avoid large…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-12 Ruyu Wang , Yaozhong Hu , Chao Zhang

In this paper we investigate the expected terminal utility maximization approach for a dynamic stochastic portfolio optimization problem. We solve it numerically by solving an evolutionary Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-30 Sona Kilianova , Daniel Sevcovic

Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Takuya Hiraoka , Takahisa Imagawa , Tatsuya Mori , Takashi Onishi , Yoshimasa Tsuruoka

This paper studies optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite state and action sets. It introduces the Dynamically augmented CVaR (DCVaR) risk measure and provides an algorithm for its…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Eugene A. Feinberg , Rui Ding

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Timo Dimitriadis , Yannick Hoga

Safe navigation is a fundamental challenge in multi-robot systems due to the uncertainty surrounding the future trajectory of the robots that act as obstacles for each other. In this work, we propose a principled data-driven approach where…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Atharva Navsalkar , Ashish R. Hota

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-03 Natalia Nolde , Chen Zhou , Menglin Zhou

We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-06-19 Laetitia Andrieu , Michel De Lara , Babacar Seck

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) have received significant research interest, offering an alternative to standard Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that often assume fixed transition probabilities. RMDPs address this by optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Xinyi Ni , Lifeng Lai

Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Zhaowen Wang , Yutao Liu , Deyuan Li

We study optimal liquidation in the presence of linear temporary and transient price impact along with taking into account a general price predicting finite-variation signal. We formulate this problem as minimization of a cost-risk…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-17 Eyal Neuman , Moritz Voß