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In this paper, we propose a novel method of model-based time series clustering with mixtures of general state space models (MSSMs). Each component of MSSMs is associated with each cluster. An advantage of the proposed method is that it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Ryoichi Ishizuka , Takashi Imai , Kaoru Kawamoto

We derive the joint asymptotic distribution of empirical quantiles and expected shortfalls under general conditions on the distribution of the underlying observations. In particular, we do not assume that the distribution function is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-28 Tobias Zwingmann , Hajo Holzmann

We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Laura Dumitrescu , Ioana Schiopu-Kratina

Causal inference with observational studies often relies on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap of covariate distributions in different treatment groups. The overlap assumption is violated when some units have propensity scores…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

We apply the concept of distance covariance for testing independence of two long-range dependent time series. As test statistic we propose a linear combination of empirical distance cross-covariances. We derive the asymptotic distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Annika Betken , Herold Dehling

A key feature of a sequential study is that the actual sample size is a random variable that typically depends on the outcomes collected. While hypothesis testing theory for sequential designs is well established, parameter and precision…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-21 Ben Berckmoes , Geert Molenberghs

In the analysis of cluster data, the regression coefficients are frequently assumed to be the same across all clusters. This hampers the ability to study the varying impacts of factors on each cluster. In this paper, a semiparametric model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Wenyang Zhang , Jianqing Fan , Yan Sun

We address the inference problem concerning regression coefficients in a classical linear regression model using least squares estimates. The analysis is conducted under circumstances where network dependency exists across units in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-03 Jing Lei , Kehui Chen , Haeun Moon

This paper studies asymptotic consensus in systems in which agents do not necessarily have self-confidence, i.e., may disregard their own value during execution of the update rule. We show that the prevalent hypothesis of self-confidence in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-27 Thomas Nowak

The paper studies the problem of distributed parameter estimation in multi-agent networks with exponential family observation statistics. A certainty-equivalence type distributed estimator of the consensus + innovations form is proposed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Soummya Kar , Jose Moura

We provide a general method to analyze the asymptotic properties of a variety of estimators of continuous time diffusion processes when the data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yacine Ait-Sahalia , Per A. Mykland

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-04 Debashis Ghosh , Lei Wang

A general asymptotic theory is given for the panel data AR(1) model with time series independent in different cross sections. The theory covers the cases of stationary process, nearly non-stationary process, unit root process, mildly…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-15 Jianfei Shen , Tianxiao Pang

Diffusion models, which convert noise into new data instances by learning to reverse a diffusion process, have become a cornerstone in contemporary generative modeling. In this work, we develop non-asymptotic convergence theory for a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Gen Li , Yuting Wei , Yuejie Chi , Yuxin Chen

Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-15 Ian Waudby-Smith , David Arbour , Ritwik Sinha , Edward H. Kennedy , Aaditya Ramdas

We propose an asymptotic theory for distribution forecasting from the log normal chain-ladder model. The theory overcomes the difficulty of convoluting log normal variables and takes estimation error into account. The results differ from…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-18 D. Kuang , B. Nielsen

We develop a new approach for identifying and estimating average causal effects in panel data under a linear factor model with unmeasured confounders. Compared to other methods tackling factor models such as synthetic controls and matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Linear mixed effects are considered excellent predictors of cluster-level parameters in various domains. However, previous work has shown that their performance can be seriously affected by departures from modelling assumptions. Since the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Katarzyna Reluga , Stefan Sperlich

This paper provides a selective review of the statistical network analysis literature focused on clustering and inference problems for stochastic blockmodels and their variants. We survey asymptotic normality results for stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Joshua Agterberg , Joshua Cape