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Estimating dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) from retrospective observational data is challenging as some degree of unmeasured confounding is often expected. In this work, we develop a framework of estimating properly defined "optimal" DTRs…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-19 Shuxiao Chen , Bo Zhang

This paper considers identifying and estimating causal effect parameters in a staggered treatment adoption setting -- that is, where a researcher has access to panel data and treatment timing varies across units. We consider the case where…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Brantly Callaway , Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

Survey questions often ask respondents to select from ordered scales where the meanings of the categories are subjective, leaving each individual free to apply their own definitions in answering. This paper studies the use of these…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-29 Leonard Goff

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

This paper discusses identification, estimation, and inference on dynamic local average treatment effects (LATEs) in instrumental variables (IVs) settings. First, we show that compliers--observations whose treatment status is affected by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Alessandro Casini , Adam McCloskey , Luca Rolla , Raimondo Pala

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

Inference for causal effects can benefit from the availability of an instrumental variable (IV) which, by definition, is associated with the given exposure, but not with the outcome of interest other than through a causal exposure effect.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-13 Stijn Vansteelandt , Jack Bowden , Manoochehr Babanezhad , Els Goetghebeur

Instrumental variable methods can identify causal effects even when the treatment and outcome are confounded. We study the problem of imperfect measurements of the binary instrumental variable, treatment or outcome. We first consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-06 Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

This note discusses two recent studies on identification of individualized treatment rules using instrumental variables---Cui and Tchetgen Tchetgen (2020) and Qiu et al. (2020). It also proposes identifying assumptions that are alternative…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-16 Sukjin , Han

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a standard strategy for learning causal relationships between confounded treatment and outcome variables from observational data by utilizing an instrumental variable, which affects the outcome only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Liyuan Xu , Yutian Chen , Siddarth Srinivasan , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

We consider a nonparametric regression model with continuous endogenous independent variables when only discrete instruments are available that are independent of the error term. Although this framework is very relevant for applied…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-18 Samuele Centorrino , Frédérique Fève , Jean-Pierre Florens

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Michael Lindon , Nathan Kallus

This paper extends the identification results in Nevo and Rosen (2012) to nonparametric models. We derive nonparametric bounds on the average treatment effect when an imperfect instrument is available. As in Nevo and Rosen (2012), we assume…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-01 Kyunghoon Ban , Désiré Kédagni

The problem of endogeneity in statistics and econometrics is often handled by introducing instrumental variables (IV) which fulfill the mean independence assumption, i.e. the unobservable is mean independent of the instruments. When full…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-13 Fabian Dunker

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding between exposure and outcome. An IV must affect the outcome exclusively through the exposure and be unconfounded with the…

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