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Related papers: Multivariate spatial conditional extremes for extr…

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This paper presents a novel deep learning framework for estimating multivariate joint extremes of metocean variables, based on the Semi-Parametric Angular-Radial (SPAR) model. When considered in polar coordinates, the problem of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Ed Mackay , Callum Murphy-Barltrop , Jordan Richards , Philip Jonathan

Accurate ocean surface wave knowledge is crucial for ship design. With the significant advancements of model physics and numerical resources, the recent numerical wave hindcast data has a potential to provide environmental conditions for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-23 Tsubasa Kodaira , Kaushik Sasmal , Rei Miratsu , Tsutomu Fukui , Tingyao Zhu , Takuji Waseda

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Dáire Healy , Jonathan Tawn , Peter Thorne , Andrew Parnell

A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-14 Dmytro Zubov , Humberto A. Barbosa , Gregory S. Duane

We present the overview of the MOSE project (MOdeling ESO Sites) aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of the classical atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity and direction, temperature, relative humidity) and the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-09-27 E. Masciadri , F. Lascaux , L. Fini

Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-11-06 James Hogg , Maria Fonoberova , Igor Mezic

To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Arnab Hazra , Brian J. Reich , Ana-Maria Staicu

Severe thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-02 Jonathan Koh , Erwan Koch , Anthony C. Davison

A successful model for high-dimensional spatial extremes should, in principle, be able to describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Silius M. Vandeskog , Sara Martino , Raphaël Huser

The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 John H. J. Einmahl , Ana Ferreira , Laurens de Haan , Claudia Neves , Chen Zhou

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of…

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Emma S. Simpson , Thomas Opitz , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-06 Callum Leach , Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

A high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic Ocean has been conducted to help assess possible regional impacts due to global climate change. The spectral wave model NOAA WAVEWATCH III is utilized with three…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-07-10 Adrean Webb , Tomoya Shimura , Nobuhito Mori

We propose a computationally efficient statistical method to obtain distributional properties of annual maximum 24 hour precipitation on a 1 km by 1 km regular grid over Iceland. A latent Gaussian model is built which takes into account…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-23 Óli Páll Geirsson , Birgir Hrafnkelsson , Daniel Simpson

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-03 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon Brown

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-05 Yuchen Lu , Ben Seiyon Lee , James Doss-Gollin

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Chloé Serre-Combe , Nicolas Meyer , Thomas Opitz , Gwladys Toulemonde

The covXtreme software provides functionality for estimation of marginal and conditional extreme value models, non-stationary with respect to covariates, and environmental design contours. Generalised Pareto (GP) marginal models of peaks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-26 Ross Towe , Emma Ross , David Randell , Philip Jonathan

Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on near-shore and off-shore human activities, and its characterisation can help in the design of ocean structures such as wave energy converters and sea dikes. Therefore, engineers need long time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-27 Said Obakrim , Valérie Monbet , Nicolas Raillard , Pierre Ailliot