Related papers: COVID-19 forecasting using new viral variants and …

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

We develop a model of infection spread that takes into account the existence of a vulnerable group as well as the variability of the social relations of individuals. We develop a compartmentalized power-law model, with power-law connections…

The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 led to the death of millions of people worldwide. To stave off the spread of the virus, the authorities in the US employed different strategies, including the mask mandate order issued by the states'…

This research is about COVID-19, which is a contagious virus that reached many countries, including Lebanon. Monitoring the outbreak, researchers have been involved in introducing COVID-19 targeting vaccines. Already facing financial and…

Due to delay in reporting, the daily national and statewide COVID-19 incidence counts are often unreliable and need to be estimated from recent data. This process is known in economics as nowcasting. We describe in this paper a simple…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

In mid of March 2020, Coronaviruses such as COVID-19 is declared as an international epidemic. More than 125000 confirmed cases and 4,607 death cases have been recorded around more than 118 countries. Unfortunately, a coronavirus vaccine is…

Purpose: Only few companies were able to produce vaccine again COVID-19. Thus, one producer supplied it to many countries. The distribution was not effective. Some countries overstocked the vaccine while other countries were not able to buy…

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, inform the public, and assist governments in decision making. Our goal is to develop a globally applicable…

Now that SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) vaccines are developed, it is very important to plan its distribution strategy. In this paper, we formulated a multi-objective linear programming model to optimize vaccine distribution and applied it to the…

To combat the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), academician and clinician are in search of new approaches to predict the COVID-19 outbreak dynamic trends that may slow down or stop the pandemic. Epidemiological models like…

Background. Forecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, and the Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus…

The COVID-19 pandemic forced the rapid development of vaccines and the implementation of mass vaccination programs around the world. However, many hesitated to take the vaccine due to concerns about its effectiveness. By looking at an…

Clinical trials of a vaccine during an epidemic face particular challenges, such as the pressure to identify an effective vaccine quickly to control the epidemic, and the effect that time-space-varying infection incidence has on the power…