Related papers: Exact Inference for Stochastic Epidemic Models via…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
This paper introduces a theoretical framework for the analysis and control of the stochastic susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) spreading process over a network of heterogeneous agents. In our analysis, we analyze the exact networked Markov…
In this paper, we are concerned with the stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on the complete graph with $n$ vertices. This model has two parameters, which are the infection rate and the recovery rate. By…
Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e. the number of…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…
The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a $2^n$-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and,…
The stochastic block model (SBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool that can be used to model interactions between clusters of nodes in a network. However, it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between clusters. The…
Why are the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 so different among different cities or countries which are similar in their populations, medical infrastructures, and people's behavior? Why are forecasts or predictions made by so-called experts…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
In this paper we study the ergodicity properties of some adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) that have been recently proposed in the literature. We prove that under a set of verifiable conditions, ergodic averages calculated…
Households represent a key unit of interest in infectious disease epidemiology, in both empirical studies and mathematical modelling. The within-household transmission potential of a disease is often summarised by a secondary attack ratio…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…