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Neural network models have become the leading solution for a large variety of tasks, such as classification, language processing, protein folding, and others. However, their reliability is heavily plagued by adversarial inputs: small input…
Predictive maintenance (PdM) has become a crucial element of modern industrial practice. PdM plays a significant role in operational dependability and cost management by decreasing unforeseen downtime and optimizing asset life cycle…
Propensity score matching has been a long-standing tradition for handling confounding in causal inference, however requiring stringent model assumptions. In this article, we propose double score matching(DSM) for general causal estimands…
Robustness is essential for deep neural networks, especially in security-sensitive applications. To this end, randomized smoothing provides theoretical guarantees for certifying robustness against adversarial perturbations. Recently,…
Machine learning and deep learning classification models are data-driven, and the model and the data jointly determine their classification performance. It is biased to evaluate the model's performance only based on the classifier accuracy…
Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…
We compare probabilistic predictions of extreme temperature anomalies issued by two different forecast schemes. One is a dynamical physical weather model, the other a simple data model. We recall the concept of skill scores in order to…
We study the robustness of conformal prediction, a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, to label noise. Our analysis tackles both regression and classification problems, characterizing when and how it is possible to construct…
The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…
Comprehensive evaluation of machine learning models is the key to make sure that they perform as robustly and consistently as desired. In order to summarize the experimental results and pick a winner, Critical Difference (CD) diagrams are…
We assess the impact of a multi-scale loss formulation for training probabilistic machine-learned weather forecasting models. The multi-scale loss is tested in AIFS-CRPS, a machine-learned weather forecasting model developed at the European…
Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…
Denoising Probabilistic Models (DPMs) represent an emerging domain of generative models that excel in generating diverse and high-quality images. However, most current training methods for DPMs often neglect the correlation between…
In this paper we argue that conventional unitary-invariant measures of recommender system (RS) performance based on measuring differences between predicted ratings and actual user ratings fail to assess fundamental RS properties. More…
This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…
This paper considers estimation of a quantized constant in noise when using uniform and nonuniform quantizers. Estimators based on simple arithmetic averages, on sample statistical moments and on the maximum-likelihood procedure are…
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models…
The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…
Randomized smoothing is a popular certified defense against adversarial attacks. In its essence, we need to solve a problem of statistical estimation which is usually very time-consuming since we need to perform numerous (usually $10^5$)…
What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…