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Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

Drawing on ergodic theory, we introduce a novel training method for machine learning based forecasting methods for chaotic dynamical systems. The training enforces dynamical invariants--such as the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and fractal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Jason A. Platt , Stephen G. Penny , Timothy A. Smith , Tse-Chun Chen , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. Usually, it appears as an equilibrium state in the asymptotic time evolution of statistical systems. It has been explained from very different perspectives. In…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2011-03-10 Ricardo Lopez-Ruiz , Jose-Luis Lopez , Xavier Calbet

This work develops a new method for estimating and optimizing the directed information rate between two jointly stationary and ergodic stochastic processes. Building upon recent advances in machine learning, we propose a recurrent neural…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Dor Tsur , Ziv Aharoni , Ziv Goldfeld , Haim Permuter

We develop numerical and analytical approaches to calculate mutual information between complete paths of two molecular components embedded into a larger reaction network. In particular, we focus on a continuous-time Markov chain formalism,…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-09 Anne-Lena Moor , Christoph Zechner

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

It has been established under very general conditions that the ergodic properties of Markov processes are inherited by their conditional distributions given partial information. While the existing theory provides a rather complete picture…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-04 Patrick Rebeschini , Ramon van Handel

We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-08 Anirudh Goyal , Nan Rosemary Ke , Surya Ganguli , Yoshua Bengio

Information theory allows us to investigate information processing in neural systems in terms of information transfer, storage and modification. Especially the measure of information transfer, transfer entropy, has seen a dramatic surge of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-11-24 Patricia Wollstadt , Mario Martínez-Zarzuela , Raul Vicente , Francisco J. Díaz-Pernas , Michael Wibral

Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-05 Igor Sazonov , Mark Kelbert

Random walks are basic diffusion processes on networks and have applications in, for example, searching, navigation, ranking, and community detection. Recent recognition of the importance of temporal aspects on networks spurred studies of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-01-14 Leo Speidel , Renaud Lambiotte , Kazuyuki Aihara , Naoki Masuda

We analyze a model of interacting agents (e.g. prebiotic chemical species) which are represended by nodes of a network, whereas their interactions are mapped onto directed links between these nodes. On a fast time scale, each agent follows…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Adrian M. Seufert , Frank Schweitzer

In spiking neural networks, the information is conveyed by the spike times, that depend on the intrinsic dynamics of each neuron, the input they receive and on the connections between neurons. In this article we study the Markovian nature…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-07 Jonathan Touboul , Olivier Faugeras

We develop a modular mean field theory for a minimalistic model of the idiotypic network. The model comprises the random influx of new idiotypes and a deterministic selection. It describes the evolution of the idiotypic network towards…

Cell Behavior · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-03 Holger Schmidtchen , Ulrich Behn

We consider the so-called GI/GI/N queueing network in which a stream of jobs with independent and identically distributed service times arrive according to a renewal process to a common queue served by $N$ identical servers in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-06 Reza Aghajani , Kavita Ramanan

Exact results for product-form stationary distributions of Markov chains are of interest in different fields. In stochastic reaction networks (CRNs), stationary distributions are mostly known in special cases where they are of product-form.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Beatriz Pascual-Escudero , Linard Hoessly

Using information theory, we propose an estimation method for traits parameters in a Darwinian evolution model for species with on trait or multiple traits. We use the Fisher's information to obtain the errors on the estimation for one…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-11 Eddy Kwessi

Entropy is a classical measure to quantify the amount of information or complexity of a system. Various entropy-based measures such as functional and spectral entropies have been proposed in brain network analysis. However, they are less…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-08 Hyekyoung Lee , Eunkyung Kim , Hyejin Kang , Youngmin Huh , Youngjo Lee , Seonhee Lim , Dong Soo Lee

As individuals communicate, their exchanges form a dynamic network. We demonstrate, using time series analysis of communication in three online settings, that network structure alone can be highly revealing of the diversity and novelty of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-05-23 Chun-Yuen Teng , Liuling Gong , Avishay Livne , Celso Brunetti , Lada A. Adamic

The power of networks manifests itself in a highly non-linear amplification of a number of effects, and their weakness - in propagation of cascading failures. The potential systemic risk effects can be either exacerbated or mitigated,…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Dmitry Zinoviev , Hamid Benbrahim , Greta Meszoely , Dan Stefanescu