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The distribution of recurrence times or return intervals between extreme events is important to characterize and understand the behavior of physical systems and phenomena in many disciplines. It is well known that many physical processes in…

Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…

Quantifying both historic and future volatility is key in portfolio risk management. This note presents and compares estimation strategies for volatility estimation in an estimation universe consisting on 28 629 unique companies from…

The Multivariate Extreme Value distributions have shown their usefulness in environmental studies, financial and insurance mathematics. The Logistic or Gumbel-Hougaard distribution is one of the oldest multivariate extreme value models and…

This paper estimates models of high frequency index futures returns using `around the clock' 5-minute returns that incorporate the following key features: multiple persistent stochastic volatility factors, jumps in prices and volatilities,…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…

In this paper, we obtain some results on precise large deviations for non-random and random sums of widely dependent random variables with common dominatedly varying tail distribution or consistently varying tail distribution on…

Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order…

Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) as a possible risk measure requires adequate techniques. One of these techniques is the application of a compound distribution for the aggregates in a portfolio. In this…

We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and…

This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…

Long-term human trajectory prediction is a challenging yet critical task in robotics and autonomous systems. Prior work that studied how to predict accurate short-term human trajectories with only unimodal features often failed in long-term…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…

In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…

We propose a fast and flexible method to scale multivariate return volatility predictions up to high-dimensions using a dynamic risk factor model. Our approach increases parsimony via time-varying sparsity on factor loadings and is able to…

Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…

We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage $\tau$, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models…