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A reaction-diffusion model was developed describing the spread of the COVID-19 virus considering the mean daily movement of susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic individuals. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed infection…
The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis,…
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial…
We follow a long path for Credit Derivatives and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) in particular, from the introduction of the Gaussian copula model and the related implied correlations to the introduction of arbitrage-free dynamic…
A Levy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is proposed to model the evolution of the risk-free rate and default intensities for the purpose of evaluating option contracts on a credit index. Time evolution in credit markets is assumed to…
This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…
Accurate forecasting of the EUR/USD exchange rate is crucial for investors, businesses, and policymakers. This paper proposes a novel framework, IUS, that integrates unstructured textual data from news and analysis with structured data on…
The aim of this paper is to dig deeper into understanding the exchange rates and uncertainty dependence. Using the novel Baker et al. (2020)'s daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates, we investigate their extreme tail…
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either…
We use a FAVAR model with proxy variables and sign restrictions to investigate the role of the euro area's common output and inflation cycles in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Our findings indicate that common cycles explain…
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation…
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…
This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM…
This paper examines a semi-analytical approach for pricing American options in time-inhomogeneous models characterized by negative interest rates (for equity/FX) or negative convenience yields (for commodities/cryptocurrencies). Under such…
This study focuses on forecasting the ultimate forward rate (UFR) and developing a UFRbased bond yield prediction model using data from Chinese treasury bonds and macroeconomic variables spanning from December 2009 to December 2024. The de…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…
Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
A negative basis trade enters a long bond position and buys protection on the issuer of the bond through credit default swap (CDS), aiming at arbitrage profit due to the bond-CDS basis. To classic reduced form model theorists, the existence…