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At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

A blocks method is used to define clusters of extreme values in stationary time series. The cluster starts at the first large value in the block and ends at the last one. The block cluster measure (the point measure at clusters) encodes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-01 Zaoli Chen , Rafal Kulik

We consider random rectangles in $\mathbb{R}^2$ that are distributed according to a Poisson random measure, i.e., independently and uniformly scattered in the plane. The distributions of the length and the width of the rectangles are…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-29 Frank Aurzada , Sebastian Schwinn

The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-18 Natalia Markovich

We formulate a general setting for the cluster expansion method and we discuss sufficient criteria for its convergence. We apply the results to systems of classical and quantum particles with stable interactions.

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-05-08 Suren Poghosyan , Daniel Ueltschi

We consider the sampling of the coupled cluster expansion within stochastic coupled cluster theory. Observing the limitations of previous approaches due to the inherently non-linear behaviour of a coupled cluster wavefunction representation…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2018-08-14 Charles J. C. Scott , Alex J. W. Thom

Quantile regression is an important tool for estimation of conditional quantiles of a response Y given a vector of covariates X. It can be used to measure the effect of covariates not only in the center of a distribution, but also in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-03 Victor Chernozhukov

An unsupervised classification method for point events occurring on a network of lines is proposed. The idea relies on the distributional flexibility and practicality of random partition models to discover the clustering structure featuring…

The risk of catastrophes is related to the possibility of occurring extreme values. Several statistical methodologies have been developed in order to evaluate the propensity of a process for the occurrence of high values and the permanence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-08 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

We consider disjoint and sliding blocks estimators of cluster indices for multivariate, regularly varying time series in the Peak-over-Threshold framework. We aim to provide a complete description of the limiting behaviour of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Zaoli Chen , Rafał Kulik

In cluster tomography, we propose measuring the number of clusters $N$ intersected by a line segment of length $\ell$ across a finite sample. As expected, the leading order of $N(\ell)$ scales as $a\ell$, where $a$ depends on microscopic…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-02-13 Helen S. Ansell , Samuel J. Frank , István A. Kovács

The problem of analyzing data streams of very large volumes is important and is very desirable for many application domains. In this paper we present and demonstrate effective working of an algorithm to find clusters and anomalous data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Aniket Bhanderi , Raj Bhatnagar

We investigate the joint asymptotic behavior of so-called blocks estimator of the extremal index, that determines the mean length of clusters of extremes, based on the exceedances over different thresholds. Due to the large bias of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-06 Holger Drees

We address the problem of data clustering by introducing an unsupervised, parameter free approach based on maximum likelihood principle. Starting from the observation that data sets belonging to the same cluster share a common information,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Lorenzo Giada , Matteo Marsili

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Jennifer Wadsworth , Ryan Campbell

We investigate a class of stochastic aggregation processes involving two types of clusters: active and passive. The mass distribution is obtained analytically for several aggregation rates. When the aggregation rate is constant, we find…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 P. L. Krapivsky , E. Ben-Naim

A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-05 Issac Shams , Saeede Ajorlou , Kai Yang

We develop a probabilistic method for assessing the tail behavior and geometric stability of one-dimensional n i.i.d. samples by tracking how their span contracts when the most extreme points are trimmed. Central to our approach is the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Erwan Dereure , Emmanuel Akame Mfoumou , David Holcman

Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-13 Ludolf E. Meester