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The impact of an extreme climate event depends strongly on its geographical scale. Max-stable processes can be used for the statistical investigation of climate extremes and their spatial dependencies on a continuous area. Most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Justus Contzen , Thorsten Dickhaus , Gerrit Lohmann

Classical peaks over threshold analysis is widely used for statistical modeling of sample extremes, and can be supplemented by a model for the sizes of clusters of exceedances. Under mild conditions a compound Poisson process model allows…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-14 Mária Süveges , Anthony C. Davison

Using an intrinsic approach, we study some properties of random fields which appear as tail fields of regularly varying stationary random fields. The index set is allowed to be a general locally compact Hausdorff Abelian group $\mathbb{G}$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Günter Last

The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-27 Richard A. Davis , Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao

In a stationary ergodic process, clustering is defined as the tendency of events to appear in series of increased frequency separated by longer breaks. Such behavior, contradicting the theoretical "unbiased behavior" with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-27 Tomasz Downarowicz , Yves Lacroix , Didier Léandri

Identifying directions where extreme events occur is a major challenge in multivariate extreme value analysis. In this paper, we use the concept of sparse regular variation introduced by Meyer and Wintenberger (2021)} to infer the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Nicolas Meyer , Olivier Wintenberger

In order to obtain functional limit theorems for heavy tailed stationary processes arising from dynamical systems, one needs to understand the clustering patterns of the tail observations of the process. These patterns are well described by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-19 Raquel Couto

We consider empirical multi-dimensional Rare Events Point Processes that keep track both of the time occurrence of extremal observations and of their severity, for stochastic processes arising from a dynamical system, by evaluating a given…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-09-19 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mário Magalhães

The article determines the asymptotic shape of the extremal clusters in stationary regularly varying random fields. To deduce this result, we present a general framework for the Poisson approximation of point processes on Polish spaces…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Bojan Basrak , Hrvoje Planinić

To address the need for efficient inference for a range of hydrological extreme value problems, spatial pooling of information is the standard approach for marginal tail estimation. We propose the first extreme value spatial clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Christian Rohrbeck , Jonathan A Tawn

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Betina Berghaus , Axel Bücher

We generalize the concept of extremal index of a stationary random sequence to the series scheme of identically distributed random variables with random series sizes tending to infinity in probability. We introduce new extremal indices…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Alexey V. Lebedev

The tail chain of a Markov chain can be used to model the dependence between extreme observations. For a positive recurrent Markov chain, the tail chain aids in describing the limit of a sequence of point processes $\{N_n,n\geq1\}$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Sidney I. Resnick , David Zeber

We study the limiting extremal and cluster point processes of branching Brownian motion. The former records the heights of all extreme values of the process, while the latter records the relative heights of extreme values in a genealogical…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-29 Lisa Hartung , Oren Louidor , Tianqi Wu

The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Hock Peng Chan

We study the extremes of multivariate regularly varying random fields. The crucial tools in our study are the tail field and the spectral field, notions that extend the tail and spectral processes of Basrak and Segers (2009). The spatial…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Lifan Wu , Gennady Samorodnitsky

The explosion in the amount of data available for analysis often necessitates a transition from batch to incremental clustering methods, which process one element at a time and typically store only a small subset of the data. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-26 Margareta Ackerman , Sanjoy Dasgupta

In this paper, we investigate temporal clusters of extremes defined as subsequent exceedances of high thresholds in a stationary time series. Two meaningful features of these clusters are the probability distribution of the cluster size and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Marco Oesting , Alexander Schnurr

The determination of cluster centers generally depends on the scale that we use to analyze the data to be clustered. Inappropriate scale usually leads to unreasonable cluster centers and thus unreasonable results. In this study, we first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-20 Xiurui Geng , Hairong Tang

A computational theory for clustering and a semi-supervised clustering algorithm is presented. Clustering is defined to be the obtainment of groupings of data such that each group contains no anomalies with respect to a chosen grouping…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Nassir Mohammad