Related papers: Model Aggregation for Risk Evaluation and Robust O…

We study a class of dynamically consistent risk measures that robustify a time-homogeneous Markovian reference model by allowing for distributional uncertainty in its transition laws. We start from one-step convex risk evaluations in which…

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is a probabilistic reformulation of principal component analysis (PCA), under the framework of a Gaussian latent variable model. To improve the robustness of PPCA, it has been proposed to…

This paper investigates the robust optimal control of sampled-data stochastic systems with multiplicative noise and distributional ambiguity. We consider a class of discrete-time optimal control problems where the controller \emph{jointly}…

We propose an end-to-end distributionally robust system for portfolio construction that integrates the asset return prediction model with a distributionally robust portfolio optimization model. We also show how to learn the risk-tolerance…

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a…

We describe a new approach for managing aleatoric uncertainty in the Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigm. Instead of selecting actions according to a single statistic, we propose a distributional method based on the second-order stochastic…

In this article we present a general framework for non-concave robust stochastic control problems under model uncertainty in a discrete time finite horizon setting. Our framework allows to consider a variety of different path-dependent…

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label…

This paper is devoted to study the optimal portfolio problem. Harry Markowitz's Ph.D. thesis prepared the ground for the mathematical theory of finance. In modern portfolio theory, we typically find asset returns that are modeled by a…

Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach…

This work provides an efficient sampling method for the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) in large-scale settings. In contract to the Gaussian sampling in CMA-ES, the proposed method generates mutation vectors from a…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

In this paper, we study two classes of optimal reinsurance models from perspectives of both insurers and reinsurers by minimizing their convex combination where the risk is measured by a distortion risk measure and the premium is given by a…

Risk sensitivity has become a central theme in reinforcement learning (RL), where convex risk measures and robust formulations provide principled ways to model preferences beyond expected return. Recent extensions to multi-agent RL (MARL)…

We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from different assets (or sources) such that each data…

By integrating dynamics models into model-free reinforcement learning (RL) methods, model-based value expansion (MVE) algorithms have shown a significant advantage in sample efficiency as well as value estimation. However, these methods…

In safety-critical applications, machine learning models should generalize well under worst-case distribution shifts, that is, have a small robust risk. Invariance-based algorithms can provably take advantage of structural assumptions on…

In this paper, we study general monetary risk measures (without any convexity or weak convexity). A monetary (respectively, positively homogeneous) risk measure can be characterized as the lower envelope of a family of convex (respectively,…

Frailty models are often the model of choice for heterogeneous survival data. A frailty model contains both random effects and fixed effects, with the random effects accommodating for the correlation in the data. Different estimation…