Related papers: SunCast: Solar Irradiance Nowcasting from Geosynch…
Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and spatial resolution is vital for the operation of the power grid. However, state-of-the-art approaches that combine machine learning with numerical weather predictions…
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
The rapid global expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity-reaching a record 597 GW in 2024-highlights the urgent need for robust forecasting models to mitigate the grid instability caused by the intermittent nature of solar irradiance.…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…
Solar PV yield nowcasting is used to help anticipate peaks and troughs in demand to support grid integration. This paper compares multiple low-resource approaches to nowcasting solar PV yield, using a dataset of UK satellite imagery and…
Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar forecasting techniques, addressing the intermittent electricity production, remain essential for securing its future integration into a wider energy supply. A…
Among several heliophysical and geophysical quantities, the accurate evolution of the solar irradiance is fundamental to forecast the evolution of the neutral and ionized components of the Earth's atmosphere.We developed an artificial…
A 'nowcast' is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has…
Surface solar irradiance (SSI) plays a crucial role in tackling climate change - as an abundant, non-fossil energy source, exploited primarily via photovoltaic (PV) energy production. With the growing contribution of SSI to total energy…
This project presents an extension to the GraphCast model, a state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) for global weather forecasting, by integrating solar energy production forecasting capabilities. The proposed approach leverages the…
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing…
Solar energy adoption is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. However, it remains difficult for many industrial and commercial actors to decide on whether they should adopt distributed solar-battery systems, which is largely due to the…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
Short-term forecasting of solar photovoltaic energy (PV) production is important for powerplant management. Ideally these forecasts are equipped with error bars, so that downstream decisions can account for uncertainty. To produce…
Accurate and reliable prediction of Photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical to electricity grid stability and power dispatching capabilities. However, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is highly volatile and unstable due to different…
The occlusion of the sun by clouds is one of the primary sources of uncertainties in solar power generation, and is a factor that affects the wide-spread use of solar power as a primary energy source. Real-time forecasting of cloud movement…
Nowcasting is a field of meteorology which aims at forecasting weather on a short term of up to a few hours. In the meteorology landscape, this field is rather specific as it requires particular techniques, such as data extrapolation, where…
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…