Related papers: From policy to prediction: Forecasting COVID-19 dy…

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have…

The risk of long range, herein `airborne', infection needs to be better understood and is especially urgent during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We present a method to determine the relative risk of airborne transmission that can be…

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

Since the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020, there have been over 600 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than six million deaths as of October 2022. The relationship between the…

OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…

The prevalence of COVID-19 has been the most serious health challenge of the 21th century to date, concerning national health systems on a daily basis, since December 2019 when it appeared in Wuhan City. Nevertheless, most of the proposed…

Accurate and reliable forecasting models are critical for guiding public health responses and policy decisions during pandemics such as COVID-19. Retrospective evaluation of model performance is essential for improving epidemic forecasting…

The implementation of social distancing policies is key to reducing the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on human behavior. In the United States, compliance with social distancing…

The Omicron wave was the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, we present a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions…

Ordinary differential equations (ODE) are a popular tool to model the spread of infectious diseases, yet they implicitly assume an exponential distribution to describe the flow from one infection state to another. However, scientific…

The problem of prediction of behavior of dynamical systems has undergone a paradigm shift in the second half of the 20th century with the discovery of the possibility of chaotic dynamics in simple, physical, dynamical systems for which the…

A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…

In the wake of COVID-19, every government huddles to find the best interventions that will reduce the number of infection cases while minimizing the economic impact. However, with many intervention policies available, how should one decide…

We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation…

After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

Policy responses to COVID-19, particularly those related to non-pharmaceutical interventions, are unprecedented in scale and scope. Epidemiologists are more involved in policy decisions and evidence generation than ever before. However,…

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…