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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are standard tools for inferring parameters of complex models when the likelihood function is analytically intractable. A popular approach to improving the poor acceptance rate of the basic…
Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely-used strategy for online planning that combines Monte-Carlo sampling with forward tree search. Its success relies on the Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm, an extension of the UCB…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…
There has been considerable interest in making Bayesian inference more scalable. In big data settings, most literature focuses on reducing the computing time per iteration, with less focused on reducing the number of iterations needed in…
We provide a deepened study of autocorrelations in Neural Markov Chain Monte Carlo (NMCMC) simulations, a version of the traditional Metropolis algorithm which employs neural networks to provide independent proposals. We illustrate our…
To lower the expertise barrier in machine learning, the AutoML community has focused on the CASH problem, which jointly automates algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning. While traditional methods like Bayesian Optimization (BO)…
Deep Neural Network guided Monte-Carlo Tree Search (DNN-MCTS) is a powerful class of AI algorithms. In DNN-MCTS, a Deep Neural Network model is trained collaboratively with a dynamic Monte-Carlo search tree to guide the agent towards…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based methods provide promising approaches for generating synthetic data to enhance the self-training of Large Language Model (LLM) based multi-agent systems (MAS). These methods leverage Q-values to estimate…
One weakness of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is its sample efficiency which can be addressed by building and using state and/or action abstractions in parallel to the tree search such that information can be shared among nodes of the same…
A Monte-Carlo algorithm for discrete statistical models that combines the full power of the Belief Propagation algorithm with the advantages of a detailed-balanced heat bath approach is presented. A sub-tree inside the factor graph is first…
Monte Carlo sampling methods are the standard procedure for approximating complicated integrals of multidimensional posterior distributions in Bayesian inference. In this work, we focus on the class of Layered Adaptive Importance Sampling…
Bayesian data analysis is widely used across many disciplines, and representative examples in materials science include spectral analysis and sparse modeling. In such applications, the underlying models often become complex and yield…
We propose a method to construct a proposal density for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations of the GARCH model. The proposal density is constructed adaptively by using the data sampled by the…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…
The binomial tree method and the Monte Carlo (MC) method are popular methods for solving option pricing problems. However in both methods there is a trade-off between accuracy and speed of computation, both of which are important in…
A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…