Related papers: A computational framework for modelling infectious…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) have been successfully employed on numerous occasions to obtain vital data-driven insights. In this paper we further substantiate the success story of GAMs,…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…
We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) response to disease incidence into one closed model consisting of two coupled delay differential equations for the incidence rate and the…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…
COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and…
Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention. While most data-driven forecasting approaches rely primarily on historical data from a single country, such data are often…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
Computational and mathematical models rely heavily on estimated parameter values for model development. Identifiability analysis determines how well the parameters of a model can be estimated from experimental data. Identifiability analysis…
The construction of mathematical models that allow comprehensive approach of decision-making in situations of absence of robust evidence is important. While it is interesting to use models that are easy to understand, using values of direct…
The paper presents classification and analysis of the mathematical models of COVID-19 spread in different groups of populations such as the family, school, office (3-100 people), neighborhood (100-5000 people), city, region (0.5-15 million…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…