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Probabilistic Regression refers to predicting a full probability density function for the target conditional on the features. We present a nonparametric approach to this problem which combines base classifiers (typically gradient boosted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Brian Lucena

A parametric method similar to autoregressive spectral estimators is proposed to determine the probability density function (pdf) of a random set. The method proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the pdf, yielding estimates that perform…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-10-31 T. Dudok de Wit , E. Floriani

This paper deals with feature selection procedures for spatial point processes intensity estimation. We consider regularized versions of estimating equations based on Campbell theorem derived from two classical functions: Poisson likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-12 Achmad Choiruddin , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Frédérique Letué

Density regression characterizes the conditional density of the response variable given the covariates, and provides much more information than the commonly used conditional mean or quantile regression. However, it is often computationally…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Yunlu Chen , Nan Zhang

A novel framework for density estimation under expectation constraints is proposed. The framework minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the estimated density and a prior, subject to the constraints that the expected value of a set of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yinan Hu , Esteban G. Tabak

In the era of rapidly increasing amounts of time series data, classification of variable objects has become the main objective of time-domain astronomy. Classification of irregularly sampled time series is particularly difficult because the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-21 Sven Dennis Kügler , Nikos Gianniotis , Kai Lars Polsterer

Estimating the ratio of two probability densities from finitely many samples, is a central task in machine learning and statistics. In this work, we show that a large class of kernel methods for density ratio estimation suffers from error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Lukas Gruber , Markus Holzleitner , Johannes Lehner , Sepp Hochreiter , Werner Zellinger

The concept of biased data is well known and its practical applications range from social sciences and biology to economics and quality control. These observations arise when a sampling procedure chooses an observation with probability that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Sam Efromovich

This paper introduces an intuitive and easy-to-implement nonparametric density estimator based on local polynomial techniques. The estimator is fully boundary adaptive and automatic, but does not require pre-binning or any other…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-11 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Xinwei Ma

It is common, in deconvolution problems, to assume that the measurement errors are identically distributed. In many real-life applications, however, this condition is not satisfied and the deconvolution estimators developed for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Aurore Delaigle , Alexander Meister

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Jon Wilkening , Alexandre J. Chorin

Given additional distributional information in the form of moment restrictions, kernel density and distribution function estimators with implied generalised empirical likelihood probabilities as weights achieve a reduction in variance due…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Vitaliy Oryshchenko , Richard J. Smith

The estimation of probability densities based on available data is a central task in many statistical applications. Especially in the case of large ensembles with many samples or high-dimensional sample spaces, computationally efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-04 Daniel W. Meyer

Divergence estimators based on direct approximation of density-ratios without going through separate approximation of numerator and denominator densities have been successfully applied to machine learning tasks that involve distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-24 Makoto Yamada , Taiji Suzuki , Takafumi Kanamori , Hirotaka Hachiya , Masashi Sugiyama

Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Tengyuan Liang , Weijie Su

The super-parametric density estimators and its related algorism were suggested by Y. -S. Tsai et al [7]. The number of parameters is unlimited in the super- parametric estimators and it is a general theory in sense of unifying or…

Computation · Statistics 2008-11-07 Yeong-Shyeong Tsai , Ying-Lin Hsu , Mung-Chung Shung

Given a sample of independent and identically distributed random variables, a novel nonparametric maximum entropy method is presented to estimate the underlying continuous univariate probability density function (pdf). Estimates are found…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-30 Jenny Farmer , Donald J. Jacobs

Calculating one-body density profiles in equilibrium via particle-based simulation methods involves counting of events of particle occurrences at (histogram-resolved) space points. Here we investigate an alternative method based on a…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2018-11-07 Daniel de las Heras , Matthias Schmidt

We propose and investigate a new estimation method for the parameters of models consisting of smooth density functions on the positive half axis. The procedure is based on a recently introduced characterization result for the respective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-16 Steffen Betsch , Bruno Ebner , Bernhard Klar

The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo