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We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is,…

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

We are in the middle of a remarkable rise in the use and capability of artificial intelligence. Much of this growth has been fueled by the success of deep learning architectures: models that map from observables to outputs via multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-02 Jason Hartford , Greg Lewis , Kevin Leyton-Brown , Matt Taddy

Drawing causal inference with observational studies is the central pillar of many disciplines. One sufficient condition for identifying the causal effect is that the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded conditional on the observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Peng Ding , Tyler VanderWeele , James Robins

We consider the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from purely observational data in the bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR), where some invalid instruments, as well as unmeasured confounding, usually exist. To address…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Feng Xie , Zhen Yao , Lin Xie , Yan Zeng , Zhi Geng

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Background: Instrumental variables (IVs) can be used to provide evidence as to whether a treatment X has a causal effect on an outcome Y. Even if the instrument Z satisfies the three core IV assumptions of relevance, independence and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-14 F. P. Hartwig , L. Wang , G. Davey Smith , N. M. Davies

This paper proposes two methods for causal additive models with unobserved variables (CAM-UV). CAM-UV assumes that the causal functions take the form of generalized additive models and that latent confounders are present. First, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-19 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Alex Kale , Yifan Wu , Jessica Hullman

Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…

Causal relationships among variables are commonly represented via directed acyclic graphs. There are many methods in the literature to quantify the strength of arrows in a causal acyclic graph. These methods, however, have undesirable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-08 Yue Wang , Linbo Wang

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

Several causal discovery algorithms have been proposed. However, when the sample size is small relative to the number of variables, the accuracy of estimating causal graphs using existing methods decreases. And some methods are not feasible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-06 Ming Cai , Hisayuki Hara

In this paper, we analyze the applicability of the Causal Identification algorithm to causal time series graphs with latent confounders. Since these graphs extend over infinitely many time steps, deciding whether causal effects across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Erik Jahn , Karthik Karnik , Leonard J. Schulman

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Latent confounding has been a long-standing obstacle for causal reasoning from observational data. One popular approach is to model the data using acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), which describe ancestral relations between variables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Matthew Ashman , Chao Ma , Agrin Hilmkil , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang

Causal structure learning from observational data remains a non-trivial task due to various factors such as finite sampling, unobserved confounding factors, and measurement errors. Constraint-based and score-based methods tend to suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Rezaur Rashid , Jawad Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Despite having achieved great success for sentiment analysis, existing neural models struggle with implicit sentiment analysis. This may be due to the fact that they may latch onto spurious correlations ("shortcuts", e.g., focusing only on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Siyin Wang , Jie Zhou , Changzhi Sun , Junjie Ye , Tao Gui , Qi Zhang , Xuanjing Huang

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang