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Effective human-machine collaboration requires machine learning models to externalize uncertainty, so users can reflect and intervene when necessary. For language models, these representations of uncertainty may be impacted by sycophancy…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Anthony Sicilia , Mert Inan , Malihe Alikhani

Explainability of black-box machine learning models is crucial, in particular when deployed in critical applications such as medicine or autonomous cars. Existing approaches produce explanations for the predictions of models, however, how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-18 Jonas Schulz , Rafael Poyiadzi , Raul Santos-Rodriguez

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

In attempts to "explain" predictions of machine learning models, researchers have proposed hundreds of techniques for attributing predictions to features that are deemed important. While these attributions are often claimed to hold the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Siddhant Arora , Danish Pruthi , Norman Sadeh , William W. Cohen , Zachary C. Lipton , Graham Neubig

Neural predictive models have achieved remarkable performance improvements in various natural language processing tasks. However, most neural predictive models suffer from the lack of explainability of predictions, limiting their practical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Dongfang Li , Jingcong Tao , Qingcai Chen , Baotian Hu

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Currently, various uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to provide certainty and probability estimates for deep learning models' label predictions. Meanwhile, with the growing demand for the right to be forgotten, machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Wei Qian , Chenxu Zhao , Yangyi Li , Wenqian Ye , Mengdi Huai

How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Sathvik Nair , Byung-Doh Oh

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, these models could offer biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses camouflaged by their fluency and realistic appearance. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Zhiqiu Xia , Jinxuan Xu , Yuqian Zhang , Hang Liu

We use the law of total variance to generate multiple expansions for the posterior predictive variance. These expansions are sums of terms involving conditional expectations and conditional variances and provide a quantification of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Dean Dustin , Bertrand Clarke

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Javier Antorán , Umang Bhatt , Tameem Adel , Adrian Weller , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-06 Dan Ley , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger

Recent research in psycholinguistics has provided increasing evidence that humans predict upcoming content. Prediction also affects perception and might be a key to robustness in human language processing. In this paper, we investigate the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-02-13 Ashutosh Modi , Ivan Titov , Vera Demberg , Asad Sayeed , Manfred Pinkal

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Riccardo Guidotti , Salvatore Ruggieri

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-12 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

The predictive uncertainty of machine translation (MT) models is typically used as a quality estimation proxy. In this work, we posit that apart from confidently translating when a single correct translation exists, models should also…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Ieva Raminta Staliūnaitė , Julius Cheng , Andreas Vlachos

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li