Related papers: PCA-MRM model to forecast TEC at middle latitudes
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
We present new measurements of the power spectra of the E-mode of CMB polarization, the temperature T, the cross-correlation of E and T, and upper limits on the B-mode from 2.5 years of dedicated Cosmic Background Imager (CBI) observations.…
The PAMELA satellite experiment is providing comprehensive observations of the interplanetary and magnetospheric radiation in the near-Earth environment. Thanks to its identification capabilities and the semi-polar orbit, PAMELA is able to…
Many existing models struggle to predict nonlinear behavior during extreme weather conditions. This study proposes a multi-scale temporal analysis for failure prediction in energy systems using PMU data. The model integrates multi-scale…
This paper proposes a new method for estimating the contribution from different ionospheric regions to the response of total electron content variations to the solar flare which uses the effect of partial shadowing of the atmosphere by the…
Data assimilation is an increasingly popular technique in Mars atmospheric science, but its effect on the mean states of the underlying atmosphere models has not been thoroughly examined. The robustness of results to the choice of model and…
Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of solar wind disturbances near Earth. When directed towards us, the internal magnetic field of the CME can interact with the Earth`s magnetic field and cause geomagnetic storms. In…
Accurate forecasts of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival times and impact geometry remain a major challenge for space-weather operations. Coronagraph-based techniques typically achieve mean absolute errors of order ten hours, while in situ…
Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they were trained on, leading to a strong…
Abreg: We investigate the impact of polarized foreground emission on the performances of future CMB experiments in measuring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We design a component separation pipeline, based on the Smica method, aimed at…
Radio interferometers, which are designed to observe astrophysical objects in the universe, can also be used to study the Earth's ionosphere. Radio interferometers like the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) detect variations in…
In this study we refine a CME model presented in an earlier study on the global energetics of solar flares and associated CMEs, and apply it to all (860) GOES M- and X-class flare events observed during the first 7 years (2010-2016) of the…
The recently released spacecraft potential measured by the RPW instrument on-board Solar Orbiter has been used to estimate the solar wind electron density in the inner heliosphere. Solar-wind electron density measured during June 2020 has…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting. Their prediction depends on various factors including source eruptions. In the present work, we…
Testing deviations from the $\Lambda$CDM model using the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectra requires a pristine understanding of instrumental systematics. In this work we discuss the properties of a new observable ${\cal…
Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes…
Spectral PCA (sPCA), in contrast to classical PCA, offers the advantage of identifying organized spatio-temporal patterns within specific frequency bands and extracting dynamical modes. However, the unavoidable tradeoff between frequency…
Accurate load forecasting is critical for efficient and reliable operations of the electric power system. A large part of electricity consumption is affected by weather conditions, making weather information an important determinant of…
We use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to study the gas dynamics in numerical simulations of typical MCs. Our simulations account for the non-isothermal nature of the gas and include a simplified treatment of the time-dependent gas…
Recently, S.W. Kahler studied the solar energetic particle (SEP) event timescales associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from spacecraft data analysis. They obtained different timescales of SEP events, such as TO, the onset time from…